Gavin Baker

Anthropic→Bullish

“they are now— they were EBIT positive per the Wall Street Journal in the most recent quarter— is a really important fact for kind of the whole AI narrative... they're growing really fast— if we add in Gemini, we add in Cursor, we add in”

NVIDIA→Bullish

“I think NVIDIA is probably at a low teens multiple of kind of low to mid-teens multiple of real earnings... NVIDIA's AI business is growing faster than Broadcom's and faster than a lot of other companies that are, you know, seen as part of”

SpaceX→Bullish

“the newest version of Groq 4.3 is on the Pareto frontier for all frontier models... Groq lacked a harness. So Claude had Claude Code, OpenAI had Codex, and now with Groq Build, there is a harness that is available to Groq... the harness is”

SpaceX→Bullish

“there's a stat in it that for, I think, the, their first data center was 122 days. The second one, it took them 91 days. The third one was, I think, 66 days. They build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else. At a lower cost.”

CoreWeave→Bullish

“those older GPUs, they have a useful life for 10 or 15 years. And this means that you can finance GPUs. I think Corey's lowest financing, I can't forget if it's 6 or 7%. 6%. It's going to come down. Yeah. And if you can get an asset-backed”

“what we make electricity with in America overwhelmingly is natural gas. And you can look it up, NG1. It is down this year. The input cost for electricity in the rest of the world... LNG is a very important one, and it's up 100%, 200%.”

Cursor→Bullish

“Cursor allegedly has more tokens of coding data than exist on the public internet... this jump from Composer 2 to Composer 2.5 showed us is that when you do an appropriate amount of reinforcement learning using that data... this is 3 or 4”

OpenAI→Mixed

“this is the first time that OpenAI has not been able to clearly beat a competitor on all metrics, you know, a month after a new frontier model was kind of released from one of their chief rivals.”

Meta→Bullish

“Meta just reported a quarter with revenue significantly ahead, and I think a lot of that was due to AI, AI making people spend longer and AI improving the quality of their ad targeting systems such that advertisers get a better ROAS and”

Apple→Bearish

“maybe they should have spent $200 billion less and spent that on data centers and been like a real competitor in AI. And I just continue to be baffled by Apple's... inaction and ineptitude in AI, how bad the products are from a user”

SpaceX→Bullish

“I should note my firm is a shareholder of xAI. So as much as I try to be objective, I am for sure biased... they have the largest Blackwell cluster, so I'm optimistic for GROK5.”

Apple→Neutral

“Apple's had an incredible partnership for many years now with Google that's generating tens of billions of dollars for both companies. And I think there is solid industrial logic for partnership... that partnership makes a lot of sense for”

NVIDIA→Bullish

“I think it's very smart decision for America to sell this chip that gives America advantage in AI and keeps China from developing their own domestic alternatives, which could eventually challenge NVIDIA, AMD, other American AI accelerator”

SpaceX→Bullish

“This is the biggest leapfrog we've seen in quite some time... it did roughly twice as good as the state-of-the-art Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic models... xAI and Apple are natural partners.”

“natural gas is great, nuclear is great, solar is great, batteries are great. We need it all.”

Nvidia→Bullish

“The big three kind of cloud computing hyperscalers, their incremental share of revenue went down. And that was nothing but good for NVIDIA because they now have kind of a more fragmented base of buyers who have less power over them.”

Nvidia→Bullish

“Blackwell is going to be a very successful product cycle. There is a little bit of a prisoner's dilemma where you're going to spend on Blackwell almost no matter what, because if you don't, you are afraid that you cede a big advantage to a”

CoreWeave→Bullish

“I do think CoreWeave runs these big GPU clusters as well as anyone, and there aren't that many people on planet Earth who can run them well. And it's kind of easy. You can just look at the NPV of their contracts and the asset value.”

Apple→Neutral

“Apple Intelligence is even worse than Copilot, which is saying something.”

NVIDIA→Neutral

“inference compute is going to be the kind of derivative winner of that. We're going to run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025 the same way we did in '23.”

Google→Neutral

“Google is— I wouldn't say they're a lot smaller, which makes it easier for them to grow faster... Google.”

Tesla→Bullish

“I think FSD works today and it's gonna— it's gonna cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice, particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night, I really, really prefer to have a Tesla... I think it's going to continue”

“enterprise application software, I think, is going to be in a lot of pain. And some of these companies are talking a big game about agents, but at the end of the day, they don't have their own models, they don't own their own compute, and”

“Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.”

“I agree 100% with Chamath. I think— all right, there you go. They're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore... they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs.”

OpenAI→Bearish

“I do think a lot of talent has left OpenAI. I thought it was a really shocking statement from Mira Murati that she resigned during a fundraise... the best information I have is the largest cluster Microsoft has after panicking is still”

NVIDIA→Bullish

“you can argue that Elon doing that in a lot of ways kind of saved NVIDIA from a tough 6-month period when Blackwell was delayed... everyone who was waiting for Blackwell and thought it was impossible to make 100,000 hoppers coherent rushed”

SpaceX→Bullish

“Grok 3 should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February. I do think a lot of talent has left OpenAI.”

MicroStrategy→Bearish

“the underlying business that pays the interest expense on the debt only does $400 million a year in revenue... unless debt investors have absolute confidence in Bitcoin as collateral... it will get to a point where it is too big for the”