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The annual picks game
Predictions Scorecard
Each January the besties call the year ahead. Here are their market picks, by category — graded against the market wherever a pick maps to a single ticker.
Market picks for 2026 — still playing out, scored against the market so far. 3 on track · 2 off track · 1 too close of 6 tracked. Sector calls are tracked via a representative ETF; private companies and one-off baskets stay untracked.
Best performing asset
1 of 4 trackedBest performing asset
Wagering/gambling space — Robinhood, Coinbase
HOOD · COIN
Jan 12, 2026-19.6%now
“My pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood PolyMarket Prize Picks. Gambling, wagering, space because people will be able to have a little cash around to make some bets. So you can buy Coinbase in there too, I guess.”
Best performing asset
Basket of critical metals
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“I would pick a basket of critical metals.”
Best performing asset
Tech supercycle / expanding US tech sector
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“It's getting a little bit redundant for me, but I just said the expanding supercycle in tech.”
Worst performing asset
2 of 4 trackedWorst performing asset
Netflix (if they don't close Warner Brothers deal) / traditional media stocks
NFLX
Jan 12, 2026-17.9%now
“It would be Netflix if they don't close the Warner Brothers deal... Alternative, if they do close on Warner Brothers... my worst performing asset would be traditional media stocks.”
Worst performing asset
Hydrocarbons / oil
USO
Jan 12, 2026+51.7%now
“I won't say the worst performing, but I think a very poor performing asset will be hydrocarbons... I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.”
Worst performing asset
California luxury real estate
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“I just said California luxury real estate because of the overhang of the wealth tax and all the things we're talking about.”
Worst performing asset
US dollar
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“I went with the US dollar in different permutations of how you can buy it because our debt continues to grow unabated... I just think it's going to be hard for the USD.”
Biggest business winner
3 of 5 trackedBiggest business winner
IPO market / wave of new public companies
IPO
Jan 12, 2026+18.9%now
“I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs... I think there's gonna be a bunch of 'em, a bunch of successful ones, and I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market cap created of public companies.”
Biggest business winner
Copper
CPER
Jan 12, 2026+3.0%now
“I will pick Copper... the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. And the reason is that it is... the most useful, cheap, amenable, conductive material that we have.”
Biggest business winner
Amazon
AMZN
Jan 12, 2026-0.5%now
“My prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is gonna have a massive year... I think they'll be the first corporate, uh, singularity, which is to say the first company to have more robots driving their bottom line than humans.”
Biggest business winner
Huawei
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“My number 1 is Huawei, which I've mentioned in the past out of China. I think Huawei's effort to partner with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack... it's going to outperform expectations, at least the Western expectations.”
Biggest business loser
4 picks · none trackedBiggest business loser
State governments (financing/pension liabilities)
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“I think these state governments are going to have a real problem with finding financing... all of these unrealized pension liabilities. I think when these numbers start to come out this year... folks are going to wake up and be like, holy shit, there's a ginormous hole in these states.”
Biggest business loser
Software industrial complex (SaaS)
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“I will pick the software industrial complex. So these are the companies that sell licensed SaaS to the corporations of America... I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively.”
Biggest business loser
California (wealth tax, regulation driving business out)
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“For me, we already talked about this, but it was California because of the wealth tax and also the onerous regulations driving business and capital out of the state.”
Biggest business loser
Young white-collar workers in America
A theme, not a single stock or fundNo ticker to score it on-track / off-track against
“I went with Young white-collar workers in America, I think they're going to be the biggest business loser. I think it's getting really hard for them to get entry-level jobs.”
Picks are scored from the episode-day close — via the named ticker, or a representative sector ETF for theme calls (e.g. software → IGV, China tech → KWEB), labelled on each card. Directional verdicts use a ±2% dead zone. Political, media, and deal predictions are left off — this is a markets scorecard. As of Jul 13, 2026.