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The annual picks game
Predictions Scorecard
Every formal prediction from the year-ahead episodes — asset picks scored against the market from the day they were made. Not financial advice; receipts included.
2026 predictions
E257 · Jan 10, 2026- Biggest political winnerDemocratic Socialists of America (DSA)
- Biggest political loserTech industry
- Biggest business winnerHuawei and Polymarket
- Biggest business loserState governments (pension liabilities and financing problems)
- Biggest dealCoding assistants / AI tool use breakout
- Most contrarian beliefMiddle East conflict among Gulf states (not Israel/Iran) as Iran transitions
- Best performing assetPolymarket
- Worst performing assetNetflix (if no Warner Bros deal) / traditional media stocksNFLX-9.1%✓ right
- Most anticipated trendIran becoming an independent democratic state
- Most anticipated mediaCitizen journalism / investigative exposés
- Biggest political winnerWhoever fights waste, fraud, and abuse at federal, state, and local level
- Biggest political loserThe Monroe Doctrine
- Biggest business winnerCopperCPER+5.6%✓ right
- Biggest business loserSoftware industrial complex (legacy SaaS)
- Biggest dealIP license M&A workaround deals (hundreds of billions in deals)
- Most contrarian beliefSpaceX reverse merges into Tesla instead of IPO; central banks develop new cryptographic reserve assetTSLA-11.1%
- Best performing assetBasket of critical metals
- Worst performing assetHydrocarbons / OilUSO+79.8%✗ wrong
- Most anticipated trendExpansion of the Trump doctrine (unilateralism, economic resilience)
- Most anticipated mediaCitizen journalism / investigative exposés
- Biggest political winnerTrump boom / Republican economic narrative
- Biggest political loserDemocratic centrism
- Biggest business winnerIPO market / wave of new IPOs
- Biggest business loserCalifornia (wealth tax, regulations, capital flight)
- Biggest dealRussia-Ukraine peace settlement
- Most contrarian beliefAI increases demand for knowledge workers (Jevons Paradox)
- Best performing assetExpanding tech supercycle / US equities
- Worst performing assetCalifornia luxury real estate
- Most anticipated trendAuditing government spending at all levels / decentralized DOGE
- Most anticipated mediaThe Odyssey (Christopher Nolan film)
- Biggest political winnerZohran Mamdani / Democratic Socialist moment
- Biggest political loserCentrist Democrats
- Biggest business winnerAmazonAMZN-2.0%✗ wrong
- Biggest business loserYoung white-collar workers in America
- Biggest dealMag 7 acquires a major AI lab (Anthropic, Perplexity, xAI, or Mistral) for $50B+
- Most contrarian beliefUS-China standoff largely resolved; Trump brokers working relationship on Taiwan
- Best performing assetGambling / wagering / prediction market stocks (e.g. Coinbase, Robinhood)COIN-34.0%✗ wrong
- Worst performing assetUS DollarUUP+2.5%✗ wrong
- Most anticipated trendMega IPOs (SpaceX, Andreessen, Stripe, Anthropic, OpenAI)
- Most anticipated mediaThe Odyssey (Christopher Nolan) / Dune Part 3 / Avengers: Doomsday
2025 predictions
E209 · Jan 4, 2025- Biggest political winnerFiscal conservatives
- Biggest political loserProgressivism
- Biggest business winnerDollar-denominated stablecoins
- Biggest business loserMag Seven (absolute dollar drawdown)
- Biggest business dealCollapse and mega-merger wave among traditional auto OEMs
- Most contrarian beliefBanking crisis at a major mainline bank
- Best performing assetCredit default swaps (CDS) as insurance against a credit event
- Worst performing assetSoftware industrial complex (legacy enterprise software)
- Most anticipated trendSmall arcane regulatory changes (e.g. supplemental loss ratio) to manage debt and stop can-kicking
- Most anticipated mediaDeclassified government files (JFK, Epstein, Diddy, etc.)
- Biggest political winnerYoung candidates
- Biggest political loserPro-war neocons
- Biggest business winnerRobotics / autonomous hardware (year of the robot)
- Biggest business loserLegacy defense and aerospace (Boeing, Lockheed, Raytheon)
- Biggest business dealMassive funding deals for US hardware/manufacturing buildout
- Most contrarian beliefRise of socialist movements in the US
- Best performing assetChinese tech stocks / ETFs
- Worst performing assetVertical SaaS (per-seat pricing model)
- Most anticipated trendNuclear power buildout in the US via deregulation
- Most anticipated mediaAI-generated video games
GGavin Baker
- Biggest political winnerTrump and centrism
- Biggest political loserPutin
- Biggest business winnerLarge businesses using AI / FSD / inference compute
- Biggest business loserGovernment service providers
- Biggest business dealTidal wave of M&A; something happens with Intel; frontier AI labs get acquired
- Most contrarian beliefUS prints >5% real GDP growth in at least one year; frontier labs stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
- Best performing assetHigh-bandwidth memory (Hynix, Micron)MU+903.3%✓ right
- Worst performing assetEnterprise application software
- Most anticipated trendAI makes more progress per quarter in 2025 than per year prior; reasoning/scaling on 3 axes toward ASI
- Most anticipated media1923 Season 2
- Biggest political winnerGen X and elder millennials
- Biggest political loserThe racist vocal minority of each party
- Biggest business winnerTesla and Google
- Biggest business loserOpenAI (peak valuation, nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion at risk)
- Biggest business dealConsolidation in autonomous transportation (Tesla/Uber, Waymo/Uber, Amazon/DoorDash)
- Most contrarian beliefOpenAI total collapse — loses nonprofit-to-for-profit transition, becomes #4 AI player
- Best performing assetMag Seven
- Worst performing assetLegacy auto OEMs and real estate
- Most anticipated trendExits and DPI surge — M&A and IPOs explode post Lina Khan
- Most anticipated mediaLegacy media outlets steering to the center (Washington Post, CNN, LA Times)
Tickered picks are scored from the episode-day close via the named ticker or ETF proxy; directional verdicts use a ±2% dead zone. As of Jun 12, 2026.