Designs and manufactures electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and solar energy products.Yahoo Finance ↗tesla.com ↗
19 takes · first discussed Jun 14, 2024 · last May 8, 2026
Every call, plotted at the price the day they made it.
Chamath's most contrarian prediction is that SpaceX will reverse-merge into Tesla rather than IPO independently, which would consolidate control of Elon Musk's two seminal assets onto one cap table — a major positive catalyst for Tesla shareholders.
Jason argues Tesla carries the same Elon innovation premium as SpaceX, and that investors ascribe a 2–4x multiple uplift to companies where Elon is providing a visible future innovation pipeline.
Sacks argues Tesla's post-election surge from ~$250 to ~$320 reflects the unwinding of a 'lawfare discount' — the market had been pricing in risk of Democratic retaliation against Elon Musk, and with Trump winning, that overhang is removed alongside regulatory relief on autonomy.
Friedberg argues Tesla's autonomous and robotics competency makes it a far more interesting long-term investment than its EV origins suggest, potentially enabling it to supply robots for moon industrialization and an entirely new manufacturing frontier.
Elon Musk argues Tesla's fleet of 100M vehicles could collectively offer 100 gigawatts of inference compute in downtime, and that all current Tesla cars are already capable of unsupervised full autonomy, with CyberCab production starting Q2 next year scaling to millions of units annually — positioning Tesla as far more than a car company.
All four regular hosts — Sacks, Friedberg, Chamath, and Jason — are consistently bullish on Tesla across a multi-year span, with conviction generally increasing over time as FSD maturation, the energy business, Optimus/robotics, and the AI stack have come into focus. The broadest point of agreement is that Tesla is no longer primarily a car company: Chamath (repeatedly, at high conviction) ranks it the #1 vertically integrated AI play — citing best-in-class vision models, xAI LLMs running on Dojo, and physical AI deployment across cars, robotaxis, and Optimus — while Friedberg calls it the best-positioned company on earth for the humanoid robotics opportunity, and Jason emphasizes the irreplaceable complexity of its multi-division structure. On FSD specifically, Friedberg and guest contributors Gavin Baker, Travis Kalanick, and Sian Bowers-Franklin all independently converge on the view that Full Self-Drive is functionally working, compounding rapidly (Kalanick citing a 10x improvement in miles-per-intervention over three months), and approaching mainstream adoption, with robotaxi deployment credible in the near term. The one significant tension across hosts is governance risk tied to Elon Musk's continued leadership: Sacks and Friedberg have argued his retention is a positive catalyst (the 2024 pay package approval, the post-election removal of a "lawfare discount"), while Musk himself warned he will not build Tesla's robot army if activist investors can remove him, a risk Jason echoes by calling Musk essentially irreplaceable — meaning the bull case for nearly every host is explicitly contingent on Musk remaining in control.
Chamath's most contrarian prediction is that SpaceX will reverse-merge into Tesla rather than IPO independently, which would consolidate control of Elon Musk's two seminal assets onto one cap table — a major positive catalyst for Tesla shareholders.
My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”1:00:28
Jason argues Tesla carries the same Elon innovation premium as SpaceX, and that investors ascribe a 2–4x multiple uplift to companies where Elon is providing a visible future innovation pipeline.
Tesla has that same Elon, uh, variable in it as well, which is people value his companies at, I would say, 2 times market, 3 times market, 4 times market because of the future pipeline.”23:47
Sacks argues Tesla's post-election surge from ~$250 to ~$320 reflects the unwinding of a 'lawfare discount' — the market had been pricing in risk of Democratic retaliation against Elon Musk, and with Trump winning, that overhang is removed alongside regulatory relief on autonomy.
Tesla, it's gone from roughly $250 to $320 a share just since the election. And you could call that the lawfare discount. That basically is the discount on Tesla stock because the market was pricing in the risk of retaliation.”34:18
Friedberg argues Tesla's autonomous and robotics competency makes it a far more interesting long-term investment than its EV origins suggest, potentially enabling it to supply robots for moon industrialization and an entirely new manufacturing frontier.
Tesla, I think 20 years from now is actually a more interesting story... Tesla started out as an electric car company, 100% ended up becoming an autonomous car company. And the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution.”9:59
Elon Musk argues Tesla's fleet of 100M vehicles could collectively offer 100 gigawatts of inference compute in downtime, and that all current Tesla cars are already capable of unsupervised full autonomy, with CyberCab production starting Q2 next year scaling to millions of units annually — positioning Tesla as far more than a car company.
If ultimately there's a Tesla fleet that is 100 million vehicles, which I think we probably will get to at some point... they have, you know, mostly state-of-the-art, uh, inference computers in them... you'd have 100 gigawatts of inference”56:44