Elon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, "FDA for AI" Panic, Trading the AI Boom

Brad Gerstner is bullish on Anthropic's trajectory but pushes back on the monopoly framing, emphasizing that on a GAAP basis it is still a fledgling startup with intense competition from OpenAI, Google, and Amazon, and that the AI race is far from over.

“On a GAAP basis, they're doing about the same revenue as OpenAI in the month of March. Okay? So we're way ahead of ourselves. By the way, 5 months ago, everybody thought OpenAI was gonna run away with this.”▶ Listen · 30:17 ⚑

SacksBullish

Sacks argues Anthropic's unprecedented 10x annual growth rate — tripling ARR in Q1 alone and accelerating in April — combined with the new compute deal, puts it on track to be the most valuable and powerful tech company in history, potentially a trillion-dollar ARR monopoly by 2027.

“Unless something about their current trajectory changes, Anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history. A trillion dollars of ARR. Growing at some exponential.”▶ Listen · 16:15 ⚑

ChamathBullish

Chamath argues Anthropic's revenue growth is entirely supply-constrained, not demand-constrained, and that the xAI compute deal removes the key bottleneck, making a robust 5-year revenue trajectory nearly certain.

“Anthropic and OpenAI's revenue performance has nothing to do with demand. Zero. It is entirely to do with the supply constraints that exist in data centers and specifically in power. If they had infinite power, I think that their revenues”▶ Listen · 6:10 ⚑

SacksBullish

Sacks argues the Anthropic compute deal fixes xAI's biggest financial problem — massive CapEx with no offsetting revenue — allowing Elon to compete at the AI frontier without the balance sheet pressure of unpaid infrastructure commitments.

“This deal fixes that problem. Elon's now able to have a frontier model company, but he's able to now not have these massive unpaid-for CapEx commitments, right? Because he's able to kind of lease that capacity.”▶ Listen · 13:16 ⚑

Gerstner argues the Anthropic compute deal adds $4–5B of incremental revenue this year, resolves the biggest valuation overhang around xAI losses, and justifies a 40–50x revenue multiple at IPO, making SpaceX a multi-trillion-dollar company.

“This is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue on top of what I've seen analyst estimates in the mid-20s... This is why the SpaceX IPO is gonna trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”▶ Listen · 9:41 ⚑

ChamathBullish

Chamath argues that SpaceX's new terrestrial compute leasing business (EWS) strengthens its valuation case by providing a structural revenue floor that blunts bear-case concerns about delayed orbital data centers and subsidizes xAI model training.

“By actually landing a bunch of terrestrial capacity, I think you start to blunt that because you can now start to say that even if the orbital data centers get delayed by a few months or a few quarters... he now has a structural core”▶ Listen · 7:55 ⚑

ChamathNeutral

Chamath disagrees that Apple is penalized, arguing it is fairly valued by every metric; the story is simply that Elon-world commands a justified innovation premium, not that legacy tech is being discounted.

“There is no world in which Google and Meta and Apple and Amazon could be viewed as being penalized in valuation. There is very clearly a world where Elon gets a massive premium because he's innovating.”▶ Listen · 26:25 ⚑

JasonBearish

Jason argues Apple is being penalized in its valuation because it has stopped innovating — shutting down AI and self-driving initiatives — and its greatest recent product was a Netflix-knockoff streaming service, leaving it without the premium Elon-style future pipeline.

“Tim Cook's greatest innovation before you got me off was Apple TV. Not even the hardware product. It was just spending money and making a Netflix knockoff. There's been no other product in— they have not done anything innovative.”▶ Listen · 25:33 ⚑

Gerstner highlights NVIDIA as a core position, noting it trades at only 19x fully-taxed GAAP earnings — not bubble territory — while being central to the AI compute buildout that is driving the current economic boom.

“Meta's trading at 17 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. NVIDIA at 19 times, Microsoft at 20 times, Google at 24 times... This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:02:12 ⚑

Gerstner highlights Google Cloud's stunning 63% growth and Google's 24x GAAP earnings valuation as evidence the company is not in bubble territory and remains a strong AI-era competitor with substantial free cash flow.

“Google Cloud stunning everybody with 63% growth... Google at 24 times. And then the memory stocks... This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:00:52 ⚑

SacksBullish

Sacks notes OpenAI's growth rate is reaccelerating with GPT-5.5/Codex and believes it will take meaningful share in coding — the dominant AI revenue category — though Anthropic currently leads the race.

“Their rate of growth appears to be accelerating now. Because of, uh, 5.5. So look, there's reason to believe that OpenAI can take some share here.”▶ Listen · 19:41 ⚑

JasonBullish✗ wrong so far

Jason argues Tesla carries the same Elon innovation premium as SpaceX, and that investors ascribe a 2–4x multiple uplift to companies where Elon is providing a visible future innovation pipeline.

“Tesla has that same Elon, uh, variable in it as well, which is people value his companies at, I would say, 2 times market, 3 times market, 4 times market because of the future pipeline.”▶ Listen · 23:47 ⚑

SacksBullish✓ right so far

Sacks identifies Palo Alto Networks as one of the key beneficiaries of deploying advanced AI cyber-offense models as defensive tools, acting as a force multiplier for cybersecurity — a structural tailwind for the business.

“What we should be doing, I think, is getting these tools, Mythos and then the OpenAI model and, and others like it, in the hands of our cybersecurity industry. And by the way, not just the public companies like Palo Alto Networks and”▶ Listen · 46:35 ⚑

Gerstner is heavily invested in memory stocks like SK Hynix, which trades at just 5x fully-taxed GAAP earnings while being a key beneficiary of the AI compute buildout — a 25% portfolio position he views as deeply undervalued.

“The memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in. SK Hynix, 5 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. Samsung, 6 times. Micron, 7 times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:02:20 ⚑

Gerstner is bullish on Micron as a core memory holding at 7x fully-taxed GAAP earnings, calling the valuation far from bubble territory given AI-driven demand for memory.

“SK Hynix, 5 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. Samsung, 6 times. Micron, 7 times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:02:26 ⚑

SacksBullish✓ right so far

Sacks sees CrowdStrike as a structural beneficiary of AI-powered cybersecurity tools, noting that getting frontier AI models into the hands of companies like CrowdStrike is a force multiplier for the broader cybersecurity industry.

“We have a giant cybersecurity industry in the United States whose sole job it is to protect systems and protect against breaches... you have CrowdStrike, we have Palo Alto Networks... we have the best defense.”▶ Listen · 46:18 ⚑