Elon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, "FDA for AI" Panic, Trading the AI Boom

Brad Gerstner pushes back on the monopoly framing and emphasizes that Anthropic is still a fledgling startup on an exponential revenue trajectory, and that strong competition (with OpenAI, Google) is exactly what keeps the US at the AI frontier — arguing against any regulatory intervention.

“we're talking about annual run rate revenues, David, but on a GAAP basis, they're doing about the same revenue as OpenAI in the month of March”▶ Listen · 30:14 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues Anthropic's unprecedented ARR growth (from $10B to $44B in 4 months) combined with newly secured compute makes it a near-certainty to hit ~$100B ARR by year-end, and potentially the most valuable tech company in history if it sustains its trajectory to ~$1T ARR.

“They grew from roughly $10 billion of ARR to $30 billion. So it tripled. And then in April, if anything, the rate of increase seemed to accelerate. They went from $30 to $44 billion of ARR. Nobody in Silicon Valley has ever seen anything”▶ Listen · 14:37 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath argues Anthropic's revenue trajectory is entirely supply-constrained, not demand-constrained, and that with new compute secured (including the xAI deal), the 5-year outlook is extremely robust and growth will be even more parabolic.

“I think the 5-year view for those two companies is quite robust. The thing that they really need is more compute and more power.”▶ Listen · 6:36 ⚑

Brad Gerstner estimates the Anthropic compute deal adds $4–5B of incremental revenue to SpaceX/xAI this year, solving the biggest valuation question — CapEx ahead of xAI revenue — and believes the IPO will trade at 40–50x revenue (~$2T) given Elon's unique innovation pipeline.

“This is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue on top of what I've seen analyst estimates in the mid-20s... This is why the SpaceX IPO is gonna trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”▶ Listen · 8:54 ⚑

ChamathCommentarytoo early to call

Chamath argues that SpaceX's terrestrial hyperscaler business (EWS) blunts the bear case around orbital data center delays and creates a structural core revenue business that subsidizes Grok training, reinforcing the SpaceX valuation story ahead of the IPO.

“I think for Elon, if you look inside of how people try to nitpick the SpaceX valuation case… The biggest element is the on-the-come value around the orbital data centers. And by actually landing a bunch of terrestrial capacity, I think you”▶ Listen · 7:30 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath disagrees with Jason's 'penalty' framing — he believes Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon are all fairly valued at current levels; it is Elon's companies that receive a premium for innovation, not that the others are discounted.

“There is no world in which Google and Meta and Apple and Amazon could be viewed as being penalized in valuation. There is very clearly a world where Elon gets a massive premium because he's innovating.”▶ Listen · 26:25 ⚑

JasonCommentarytoo early to call

Jason argues Apple is being penalized in its valuation because it has stopped innovating — shutting down AI and self-driving initiatives — and lacks a visionary like Elon or Steve Jobs to drive a future product pipeline.

“If you look at their track record, and I think this is why we had a change there, is they have not done anything innovative. And in fact, the things they were doing that were innovating in AI or self-driving cars, they shut down They won't”▶ Listen · 25:53 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks notes OpenAI's growth rate is also accelerating due to GPT-5.5 (Spud base model) and its pivot to coding, suggesting it can take meaningful share back from Anthropic in the coding market.

“It does look like OpenAI has already made the pivot. We hear very good things about Codex now based on GPT-5.5. 5.5 is based on a new base model called Spud. I think they're very optimistic about continuing improvements. Their rate of growt”▶ Listen · 19:28 ⚑

Brad Gerstner highlights Meta trading at 17x fully-taxed GAAP earnings as evidence the market is not in bubble territory and that the stock is reasonably valued.

“Meta's trading at 17 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. NVIDIA at 19 times, Microsoft at 20 times, Google at 24 times.”▶ Listen · 1:02:12 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath identifies Nvidia as one of the key beneficiaries in the near term as the 'makers of the new thing' that need to demonstrate and get valued for their contributions to the AI infrastructure wave.

“In the short term, the people that makes the new thing needs to get valued. And needs to demonstrate value. So who are the people making the new thing? It's the Nvidias, it's the memory makers, it's the Anthropics, it's the SpaceXs, and”▶ Listen · 1:07:59 ⚑

Brad Gerstner discloses 25% of his portfolio is in memory stocks including Micron, citing 7x fully-taxed GAAP earnings as compelling value far from bubble territory.

“The memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in. SK Hynix, 5 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. Samsung, 6 times. Micron, 7 times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:02:20 ⚑

Brad Gerstner points to Google Cloud's 63% growth and Google's 24x GAAP earnings multiple as evidence the market is fairly valued and not in bubble territory, and that Google remains a strong AI competitor.

“Google Cloud grow 63% in the quarter... Google at 24 times. And then the memory stocks that everybody's excited about... This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:14:37 ⚑

JasonCommentarytoo early to call

Jason argues Tesla benefits from the same 'Elon premium' as SpaceX, with investors pricing in a future innovation pipeline, and that this premium is deserved given Elon's track record.

“Tesla has that same Elon, uh, variable in it as well, which is people value his companies at, I would say, 2 times market, 3 times market, 4 times market because of the future pipeline.”▶ Listen · 23:47 ⚑

Brad Gerstner discloses 25% of his portfolio is in memory stocks including SK Hynix, citing 5x fully-taxed GAAP earnings as a compelling valuation that is far from bubble territory.

“The memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in. SK Hynix, 5 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. Samsung, 6 times. Micron, 7 times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:02:20 ⚑

Brad Gerstner discloses 25% of his portfolio is in memory stocks including Samsung, citing 6x fully-taxed GAAP earnings as compelling value far from bubble territory.

“The memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in. SK Hynix, 5 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. Samsung, 6 times. Micron, 7 times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”▶ Listen · 1:02:20 ⚑