OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

ChamathCommentary

Chamath believes OpenAI will be fine and is a multi-trillion-dollar company; any revenue misses are entirely due to power/compute supply constraints, not weak demand, and OpenAI is among the players most hurt by those constraints but also best positioned to benefit from hyperscaler infrastructure deals.

“I think they're going to be fine. I think this is a multi-trillion-dollar company. I think the thing that's happening right now is a complete misunderstanding of what's actually happening inside of the world of AI.”▶ Listen · 8:29 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks has a contrarian take: OpenAI missed consumer targets partly because Google took share, but the strong GPT-5.5 release, new Spud base model, and growing compute advantage over token-constrained Anthropic suggest OpenAI may end up winning the all-important coding/enterprise market even if it missed on consumer.

“I think Sam may end up being right here for the wrong reason, which is he missed on consumer, but enterprise is going gangbusters and is giving him the ability now, I think, to catch up on consumer.”▶ Listen · 7:32 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath believes Anthropic is a multi-trillion-dollar company but is currently power-constrained, forcing it to negotiate equity/control concessions to hyperscalers for compute access, creating near-term headwinds but not undermining long-term value.

“I think Anthropic is a multi-trillion-dollar company. I think the thing that's happening right now is a complete misunderstanding of what's actually happening inside of the world of AI.”▶ Listen · 8:35 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues Anthropic is token-constrained, forcing compute gating on Opus 4.7 which appears to be a bust, causing developers to roll back to older versions and shift coding usage toward GPT-5.5, suggesting Anthropic is losing competitive ground in the all-important coding market.

“Anthropic is token constrained. It's reducing their ability to serve Mythos, for example. It's causing them to engage in compute gating with Opus 4.7.”▶ Listen · 7:15 ⚑

JasonCommentarytoo early to call

Jason argues Google brilliantly integrated Gemini into Search, growing to ~750M users while keeping search revenue surging, and the stock is being rewarded for solving the AI-vs-search revenue tension.

“Search revenue is surging and they're also surging. So they figured out a way to balance those two competing forces, having search results that are AI-enabled and still getting people to click on links. They've done it brilliantly, apparent”▶ Listen · 17:35 ⚑

SacksCommentarytoo early to call

Sacks argues Google has taken meaningful consumer AI share from OpenAI through Sergey's return and the brilliant integration of Gemini into Search, validating its consumer AI strategy.

“I would say that if there is a single reason why OpenAI did not hit its user targets and its revenue targets, certainly around consumer, you'd have to say it's because Google managed to take meaningful share.”▶ Listen · 18:40 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath argues the hyperscalers' massive CapEx commitments at above-market energy rates will force them to lever up, become bulky industrial businesses, and compress valuations — suggesting investors should instead follow the trillion dollars flowing out of them and buy the recipient companies.

“I'm not sure that there's a good valuation case to be made at that point. And so I think it may be simpler, and this is what I tweeted, to just follow the dollars, like a trillion dollars a year going out of the hyperscalers. Where is it go”▶ Listen · 45:40 ⚑

ChamathBullish

Chamath explicitly recommends buying the companies that receive the trillion dollars flowing out of hyperscalers as CapEx, arguing those companies are already underpriced.

“I think it may be simpler, and this is what I tweeted, to just follow the dollars, like a trillion dollars a year going out of the hyperscalers. Where is it going? Just follow those dollars and buy those companies because those companies ar”▶ Listen · 45:46 ⚑

FriedbergCommentarytoo early to call

Friedberg highlights retatrutide's exceptional Phase 3 data — 37-lb weight loss, 80% liver fat reduction, A1C improvement — and frames it as Lilly's premium upgrade product that will command high pricing, making it a major revenue opportunity on top of discounted tirzepatide.

“I'm sure if I'm Lilly and I'm sitting there and I'm looking at this data coming out, I'm like, my God, people 'pay for this.' And that starts to become sort of like the upgrade to the BMW, or the Model S Plaid, if you will.”▶ Listen · 1:04:01 ⚑

FriedbergCommentary

Friedberg describes Bayer's massive Roundup litigation exposure — $10B paid, $10B reserved, 90,000 cases outstanding — noting the Supreme Court case outcome is now a coin flip rather than the expected 6-3 Bayer win, creating significant uncertainty for the stock.

“They have 90,000 cases still outstanding in the courts...going into it, we were kind of like trying to say, hey, maybe this could be 6-3. So honestly...this could be a 50-50 coin flip, 5-4 either way.”▶ Listen · 1:11:25 ⚑