Designs and sells consumer electronics, software, and services including iPhone, Mac, and App Store.Yahoo Finance ↗apple.com ↗
27 takes · first discussed May 10, 2024 · last May 29, 2026 · 3 stance reversals
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Chamath disagrees with Jason's 'penalty' framing — he believes Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon are all fairly valued at current levels; it is Elon's companies that receive a premium for innovation, not that the others are discounted.
Jason argues Apple is the dark horse in AI because its principled data-sovereignty stance and powerful M-series hardware (M5, Mac Studio) position it uniquely to run open-source models locally, giving it a key role in intelligence sovereignty.
Sacks argues Apple's App Store practices—mandatory routing, no sideloading, and a 30% take rate—are anti-competitive and should be cracked down on by regulators, posing a risk to Apple's high-margin services business.
Friedberg argues Apple's massive install base in personal data (mail, calendar, photos) gives it a strong foundation to build a killer personal AI assistant, though it will face formidable competition from Google.
Gavin Baker is sharply critical of Apple's AI strategy, arguing the company has squandered capital on buybacks instead of investing in AI capabilities, resulting in terrible AI products and a baffling lack of execution that makes it appear they are 'trying to lose.'
The hosts are broadly skeptical of Apple's near-term prospects, with the dominant concern being a failure to establish meaningful AI leadership — a view shared across Chamath, Sacks (at times), Jason, and multiple guests including Gavin Baker, Travis Kalanick, and Thomas LaFont, who variously describe Apple Intelligence as poor, Apple's AI execution as inept, and its culture as too incremental to compete in the AI era. Compounding this, Chamath and Friedberg highlight structural financial risks from the potential loss of Google's ~$20B TAC payment, App Store regulatory pressure, and multiple compression as growth stalls, while Chamath and Friedberg also flag deteriorating product quality (iOS 18) as evidence of organizational complacency. Jason and Friedberg represent the most optimistic counterpoints in the later period — Jason arguing Apple's M-series hardware and data-sovereignty positioning make it a dark horse AI player capable of running open-source models locally, and Friedberg cautioning that Apple has repeatedly defied obituaries and its vast install base in personal data could underpin a compelling personal AI assistant. Sacks has oscillated most visibly, moving from bearish on innovation stagnation to bullish on an iPhone 16 AI upgrade cycle before returning to mixed skepticism, while Chamath's trajectory has hardened from medium to high conviction bear, concluding Apple has no viable path to AI leadership and is effectively transitioning into a cash cow.
Chamath disagrees with Jason's 'penalty' framing — he believes Apple, Google, Meta, and Amazon are all fairly valued at current levels; it is Elon's companies that receive a premium for innovation, not that the others are discounted.
There is no world in which Google and Meta and Apple and Amazon could be viewed as being penalized in valuation. There is very clearly a world where Elon gets a massive premium because he's innovating.”26:25
Jason argues Apple is the dark horse in AI because its principled data-sovereignty stance and powerful M-series hardware (M5, Mac Studio) position it uniquely to run open-source models locally, giving it a key role in intelligence sovereignty.
This is why I think Apple is just the dark horse in this entire race. If there is an open-source product that can run on this hardware, the M5s, the 48 gigs, 128 gigs, the new Mac Studio coming out with supposedly a terabyte, that changes t”39:43
Sacks argues Apple's App Store practices—mandatory routing, no sideloading, and a 30% take rate—are anti-competitive and should be cracked down on by regulators, posing a risk to Apple's high-margin services business.
Apple, really good example, because they drive everything through the App Store. You're not allowed to do sideloading. They want to take, what is it, 30% piece of any sales.”37:51
Friedberg argues Apple's massive install base in personal data (mail, calendar, photos) gives it a strong foundation to build a killer personal AI assistant, though it will face formidable competition from Google.
Apple obviously has an embedded install piece. How many people are using Apple services for doing all of their mail, for calendaring, for storing their information?... billions. Yeah. So that may end up becoming kind of the way that the”53:35
Gavin Baker is sharply critical of Apple's AI strategy, arguing the company has squandered capital on buybacks instead of investing in AI capabilities, resulting in terrible AI products and a baffling lack of execution that makes it appear they are 'trying to lose.'
I'm just shocked at their inaction and ineptitude in AI, how bad the products are from a user perspective. I mean, they're, they're terrible... it almost feels like they're trying to lose.”1:33:48