The Guesties
BG
Brad Gerstner
Guest on the All-In podcast · 4 scored calls
+6.5%
vs S&P +3.1% · +3.4pp
Each call below is scored as if you'd followed it— long a bull, an inverse-sized stake on a bear (capped at −100%) — from the day it aired to today, versus simply buying the S&P over the same window.
Scored calls
| Company | Call | Date | Return | vs S&P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIANVDA | Bullish | May 8, 2026 | -6.8% | -8.3pp |
| SpaceXSPCX | Bullish | May 8, 2026 | +22.3% | +20.8pp |
| GoogleGOOGL | Bullish | May 8, 2026 | -8.0% | -9.5pp |
| SalesforceCRM | Bearish | Feb 7, 2026 | +18.4% | +10.3pp |
In their words
Anthropic→Bullish
“It's terrific for Anthropic, and it solves what I think was the biggest question in the valuation story, which is what if he spends ahead of x.ai's revenue?”
E272· May 8, 2026
NVIDIA→Bullish
“Meta's trading at 17 times fully taxed GAAP earnings. NVIDIA at 19 times, Microsoft at 20 times, Google at 24 times. And then the memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in.”
E272· May 8, 2026
SpaceX→Bullish
“I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue... This is why the SpaceX IPO is gonna trade at 40 to 50 times revenue... there's only one person on the planet who has a future pipeline of”
E272· May 8, 2026
OpenAI→Bullish
“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe. I think these companies are firmly on the wave.”
E268· Apr 10, 2026
Anthropic→Bullish
“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue.”
E268· Apr 10, 2026
SpaceX→Neutral
“X is better today than it's ever been. And remember, they have 70% fewer employees than they had the day Elon walked into the building... every other company in Silicon Valley is looking at that.”
E268· Apr 10, 2026
OpenAI→Neutral
“These are 2 of the most important companies in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. It's destabilizing not to have them public.”
E264· Mar 13, 2026
Anthropic→Bullish
“I bought a lot more since then, Jason... We had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February... That's more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake that are two of the greatest software companies of all time after 12”
E264· Mar 13, 2026
Oil→Neutral
“I think the Trump doctrine is far more pragmatic than the neocon doctrine... my suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration, but right now the market's having a little bit of post-traumatic stress flashbacks to Afghanistan and”
E264· Mar 13, 2026
SpaceX→Bullish
“You're merging the two biggest TAMs in the world, right? All of artificial intelligence. And all of space together with the world's greatest entrepreneur... there will be dramatic retail demand and institutional demand who wanna bet on”
E260· Feb 7, 2026
Salesforce→Bearish
“it could be true that you're not gonna replace CRM, but it can also be true that it's never gonna trade at 30 times free cash flow again. And it's going to trade 17 times free cash flow because its available TAM in the future is now”
E260· Feb 7, 2026
Snowflake→Neutral
“Snowflake reaccelerating. ClickHouse reaccelerating. There are beneficiaries in the software space.”
E260· Feb 7, 2026
Databricks→Bullish
“I'll tell you a company that is doing this, Databricks. Databricks just reaccelerated the last 3 quarters. They're growing over 60% at scale.”
E260· Feb 7, 2026
OpenAI→Bullish
“we still believe that owning all of compute like we have for 3 years, and this AI trade has room to run.”
E250· Nov 7, 2025
Anthropic→Bullish
“The most impressive revenue chart when you showed that leak from OpenAI was Anthropic... what's really impressive is Anthropic is not really in a J-curve at all, and they get to very similar points of free cash flow, but will not have”
E250· Nov 7, 2025
Google→Bullish
“Google's earnings were phenomenal. Their AI numbers were blazing hot.”
E250· Nov 7, 2025
NVIDIA→Bullish
“Nvidia trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than it did when it was $200 a share... There is not a dark GPU in the world today. There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next week.”
E246· Oct 10, 2025