Anthropic's $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues Anthropic has dominant coding market share (50%+ of coding tokens), the fastest revenue ramp ever seen at scale, and a potential flywheel where coding leadership compounds into agents dominance, though he cautions the company must avoid anti-competitive pricing behavior.

“Anthropic's revenue run rate is, based on what I can tell and what's been publicly released, is the fastest growing revenue run rate at scale that I think we've ever seen.”▶ Listen · 40:55 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath is bullish on Anthropic's competitive execution and go-to-market momentum, calling them the current leader in coding AI, but notes the market is early, the Mythos doomsday framing is largely theater, and profitability questions remain unresolved.

“Anthropic is shooting the lights out right now. This is like Steph Curry going bananas from everywhere on the court. These guys are hucking threes.”▶ Listen · 17:03 ⚑

Brad Gerstner, an investor in Anthropic, argues the company has posted the fastest revenue ramp in tech history, is compute-constrained not demand-constrained, has exploding gross margins, and is likely to exit the year at $80–100B run rate; he is a buyer of shares in both Anthropic and OpenAI today.

“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue.”▶ Listen · 48:17 ⚑

Brad Gerstner argues OpenAI is at peak FUD, has an incoming model (SpUD) on par with Anthropic's Mythos, and is firmly on the AI revenue wave; he says he is a buyer of OpenAI shares today despite the current negative vibes.

“OpenAI, who is also on the wave, they'll be releasing an incredible model in the next— imminently they're going to be on that wave and you're going to see an inflection in their revenues as well.”▶ Listen · 48:27 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath argues Meta's massive compute infrastructure gives it a structural advantage in AI — its models are highly performant — and predicts Meta will seek to make AI a capital problem to outcompete leaner rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI.

“Meta's models today, what people's general reviews are, it's okay, but the one thing that people say is it's incredibly performant... which speaks to Meta's huge advantage. They have a massive compute infrastructure.”▶ Listen · 53:09 ⚑

Brad Gerstner notes enterprise software stocks are getting crushed (IGV down 30% YTD) as AI disrupts terminal values, and venture capitalists are crowding into frontier AI and away from traditional software.

“You look at the IGV stock index, down 30% year to date, down 5% today. All software stocks plummeting, right? Venture capitalists are terrified to invest money in anything other than these frontier models.”▶ Listen · 1:03:33 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks thinks the market is being too pessimistic on at least some enterprise software companies — cheaper software generation doesn't necessarily destroy their moats — and suggests there are value buys among those with strong competitive positions, though differentiation will matter.

“I think the market's probably being a little too pessimistic with respect to at least some of these software companies... there probably are some value buys in enterprise software.”▶ Listen · 1:04:36 ⚑