Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

ChamathBullish📌 position call

Chamath is bullish on Anthropic as part of his broad AI supercycle bet, noting its enterprise-focused model and strong API revenue growth are off the charts, while also flagging that long-range revenue forecasts for any AI company carry high uncertainty.

“Anthropic's numbers, despite Cursor doing some of their own thing, Anthropic's numbers are off the charts. I think that this market is as big or bigger than current estimates are out there.”▶ Listen · 33:40 ⚑

Brad Gerstner is particularly impressed by Anthropic's capital efficiency, noting its revenue chart suggests it reaches similar financial milestones to OpenAI while burning far less capital, making it the most interesting data point in the leaked revenue forecasts.

“The most impressive revenue chart when you showed that leak from OpenAI was Anthropic… Anthropic is not really in a J-curve at all, and they get to very similar points of free cash flow, but will not have burned through near as much”▶ Listen · 34:29 ⚑

ChamathBullish📌 position call

Chamath is a bullish investor in OpenAI, arguing its $1.4T capex commitment is a misunderstood red herring, that deal flexibility exists to match expenses to revenue, and that the company is building the dominant consumer AI brand with exceptional retention cohorts.

“I'm betting in the supercycle. This is the biggest supercycle of all of our lives. I'm an investor in OpenAI and Anthropic and Google and Microsoft and Nvidia… I love the fact that Sundar is coming off the mat swinging.”▶ Listen · 32:44 ⚑

Brad Gerstner is bullish on OpenAI, citing a steep revenue growth trajectory toward a $20B forward run rate by year-end and expecting strong multi-year growth, while dismissing fears of insolvency as overblown and viewing the $1.4T capex commitment as a manageable long-term obligation.

“We will end the year on a $20 billion forward run rate… We kind of know where the revenue's going from 1.2 to 1.6 over these next few months, which is a pretty staggering growth rate if they were at 13 and they're going to end at 20.”▶ Listen · 15:33 ⚑

Brad Gerstner notes Apple is in an interesting strategic position where it appears to be ceding its AI business to Google and paying billions for search/AI integration, framing this as a notable competitive dynamic affecting the Mag Seven dispersion story.

“Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're gonna seed their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year, like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them.”▶ Listen · 7:35 ⚑

Brad Gerstner frames Nvidia as a core holding in the AI compute trade, which he believes still has room to run despite a recent pullback, and characterizes the current sell-off as a temporary risk-off rebalancing rather than a structural reversal.

“We still believe that owning all of compute like we have for 3 years, and this AI trade has room to run. But there, obviously, multiples have come up a lot. I talked about a 40% move from the bottom this year.”▶ Listen · 43:02 ⚑