Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

Brad Gerstner notes NVIDIA trades at a lower P/E multiple than when it was at $200/share despite 10x revenue growth, and there are no 'dark GPUs' — all compute is being consumed — dismissing bubble comparisons to dark fiber.

“Nvidia trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple than it did when it was $200 a share... There is not a dark GPU in the world today. There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next week.”▶ Listen · 57:20 ⚑

Brad Gerstner argues NVIDIA has captured nearly 100% of incremental AI data center revenue and its performance-per-watt advantage is so dominant that competitors priced at zero still can't match it economically, making it the structural winner of the AI buildout.

“price the competitor chips at zero and it still more effective and economic decision to choose Nvidia. And I think that's what it comes down to. They have to be at perf per watt because power is the constrained resource”▶ Listen · 1:04:41 ⚑

Brad Gerstner sees OpenAI's revenue trajectory (exiting 2025 at $20B+ run rate, potentially $50B next year and $100B after) as proof of genuine demand, and views its strategic moves — securing HBM supply and chip alternatives — as positioning it as a key node controlling AI supply chain allocation.

“they'll exit this year at over $20 billion run rate. I think there are a lot of people who think they could hit $50 billion next year and $100 billion after that.”▶ Listen · 1:10:36 ⚑

SacksBullish

Sacks argues OpenAI's rapid revenue ramp (from ~$5B to $25B to a projected $100B run rate) demonstrates real economic substance behind its GPU purchases and financing arrangements, validating the investment thesis.

“OpenAI's revenue ramp rate is, it's something like $5 billion to $25 billion to $100 billion... There's no dark GPUs in the world today. The tokens are being consumed.”▶ Listen · 1:10:18 ⚑

ChamathBullish✓ right so far

Chamath argues that HBM memory is the critical constrained input for next-gen AI chips, making SK Hynix (and Samsung) powerful leverage points in the AI supply chain — analogous to controlling the money supply — with growing pricing power as AMD and others compete for allocation.

“the people that then control that supply, SK Hynix and Samsung, will have leverage... Sam has allocation and now Sam can allocate allocation, and then as a result get a tax.”▶ Listen · 52:14 ⚑

ChamathBullish

Chamath argues Polymarket represents a broader trend of financializing everything into liquid token-based markets, which could disrupt traditional prediction/betting incumbents like FanDuel and DraftKings as well as legacy financial infrastructure.

“Everything is becoming a market... What is it going to mean to the betting sites like FanDuel and DraftKings where now a bunch of these trades can happen here as well? So I think what Shane is leading the charge on is democratizing this”▶ Listen · 1:21:53 ⚑

SacksBullish✗ wrong so far

Sacks attributes Robinhood's massive stock appreciation — from roughly $2 to a ~$130B market cap — directly to the crypto-friendly policies of the Trump administration, implying the policy tailwind has been the key value driver.

“what's the reason why your Robinhood stock is through the roof? Because of the crypto policies of the Trump administration. That's why it's gone from, what is it, like $3 to $130 billion?”▶ Listen · 0:46 ⚑

Brad Gerstner frames the OpenAI-AMD deal as a high-risk, high-reward 'bet the farm' moment for Lisa Su — if the MI450 chip proves competitive against NVIDIA's Vera Rubin it could unlock $150B+ in incremental revenue, but the outcome is far from certain.

“If it works, she's going to get $150 billion of incremental revenue just from OpenAI... But it's far from a done deal, far from a conclusion whether the 450 is going to work. Can it compete against Vera Rubin?”▶ Listen · 47:36 ⚑