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Natural Gas

UNGBullish

Exchange-traded fund tracking near-month natural gas futures contracts for commodity exposure.Yahoo Finance ↗uscfinvestments.com

7 takes · first discussed Apr 11, 2025 · last May 22, 2026

Stock since first call
-39.1%
$18.63$11.35
Current call
Bullish-27.5%
since May 17, 2025✗ wrong so far
anchored Apr 11, 2025 · as of Jun 12, 2026

The tape vs. the takes

Every call, plotted at the price the day they made it.

$18.63$10.24FFriedberg — bull — May 17, 2025SSacks — bull — Jul 19, 2025SSacks — bull — Oct 3, 2025FFriedberg — bull — Apr 3, 2026Apr 11, 2025Jun 12, 2026
letter = host · click for the quote

The discussion

All hosts and guests represented hold a uniformly bullish stance on natural gas, with no dissent across the recorded views. The shared thesis rests on several reinforcing pillars: natural gas is seen as the most practical near-term fuel for AI data center power demand (Sacks, Guest/Gavin), a strategic export asset that strengthens US energy security and generates revenue through LNG (Friedberg, Guest/Summers), and a source of meaningful competitive advantage given that US domestic gas prices have fallen while global LNG prices have surged 100–200% (Guest, 2026). Friedberg adds a further dimension, noting that disruptions to Strait of Hormuz gas flows tighten global nitrogen fertilizer supply, putting upward pressure on natural gas values internationally while leaving the US relatively insulated. The only nuance raised is Sacks' acknowledgment that gas turbine backlogs may constrain how quickly natural gas capacity can be deployed to meet AI-driven power needs in the near term.

How they got there

SacksSacks2 takes since Jul 19, 2025
BullishE245Oct 3, 2025

Sacks argues that natural gas is the near-term (next 5 years) answer to AI-driven power demand, before nuclear comes online, though he notes turbine backlogs as a constraint.

Within the next 5 years, it's probably gas, natural gas. But the issue there is there's a huge backlog for gas turbines... So the question is, what do you do in the next few years?55:09
FriedbergFriedberg2 takes since May 17, 2025
’26
BullishE267Apr 3, 2026

Friedberg explains that natural gas is the critical input for nitrogen fertilizer production, and with the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and Qatar's main facility damaged, natural gas-linked fertilizer supply is severely constrained, implying upward price pressure on natural gas and fertilizer derived from it.

That nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed. And the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the production process... about 35% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the Strait of42:52
GGuests3 takes since Apr 11, 2025
’26
Gavin BakerBullishE274May 22, 2026

Guest argues that US natural gas (NG1) is down this year while LNG prices for the rest of the world are up 100-200%, giving America a relative cost advantage in electricity/manufacturing inputs. Strait of Hormuz closure is relatively good for America's natural gas competitiveness.

what we make electricity with in America overwhelmingly is natural gas. And you can look it up, NG1. It is down this year. The input cost for electricity in the rest of the world... LNG is a very important one, and it's up 100%, 200%.1:30:47
iAbout these quotes
Quotes are machine-transcribed from the episode audio — use the Listen links to verify any take against the source, or the ⚑ link to report a problem. Takes marked unverified, low-conviction, or commentary-only never move stances, the index, or the funds.