SpaceX's $2T Case, Nvidia's Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?

FriedbergBullish

Friedberg is bullish on the strategic value of SpaceX's space-based communication and compute infrastructure as a censorship-resistant, government-independent backbone for civilization — providing a unique long-term moat beyond financial metrics.

“if you have a communication network that isn't restricted and controlled by a government on Earth, it's almost like a backup... I think having like a space-based communication network, space-based data centers, and space-based”▶ Listen · 56:53 ⚑

Gavin Baker is bullish on SpaceX's AI/compute business, arguing their ability to build data centers faster and cheaper than anyone else, combined with the Anthropic $15B offtake deal and Cursor's Composer 2.5 breakthrough on Colossus, positions the company for dramatic revenue growth in its AI segment.

“they build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else. At a lower cost. And now that you have a clear offtake partner, and I would expect partner to become partners, there is no reason they can't start stamping these data centers”▶ Listen · 48:33 ⚑

ChamathBullish📌 position call

Chamath argues SpaceX is underwritable at a $2T valuation based on Starlink's scalable internet infrastructure, rapidly growing AI/compute revenue (now $15B/year from Anthropic alone), and Elon's unique ability to compound capital moats into technology and execution moats — with a Tesla merger making it even cheaper over time.

“I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project that's happened since the internet itself... terrestrial data centers alone are $100 or $200 billion of revenue by 2030, 2032. Just— and that means just building it. So”▶ Listen · 1:00:23 ⚑

ChamathBullish✗ wrong so far

Chamath is bullish on Nvidia's durability, arguing the company is effectively building domain-specific architectures internally through co-design partnerships with every major lab, making the DSA disruption thesis obsolete and reinforcing Nvidia's central role in AI infrastructure.

“the reality is that that DSA market evolution is actually happening inside of NVIDIA. That's what's so insane to me. That was my takeaway from the quarter as well, which is like, holy shit, these guys actually have domain-specific”▶ Listen · 1:19:14 ⚑

Gavin Baker argues Nvidia is growing faster than hyperscaler CapEx and gaining share over ASICs despite the bear narrative; the stock trades at a low-to-mid-teens multiple of real earnings — comparable to Cisco in the tech bubble but far cheaper — and the $20B CPU business announcement signals a uniquely broad co-design position across every AI lab.

“NVIDIA is probably at a low teens multiple of kind of low to mid-teens multiple of real earnings... NVIDIA's AI business is growing faster than Broadcom's and faster than a lot of other companies that are, you know, seen as part of this”▶ Listen · 1:28:57 ⚑

Gavin Baker argues Anthropic's EBIT-positive status, explosive ARR growth, and now-demonstrated ROI on AI inference validate it as one of the most financially significant AI companies, with its proprietary coding data and Cursor integration creating durable competitive advantages.

“they were EBIT positive per the Wall Street Journal in the most recent quarter— is a really important fact for kind of the whole AI narrative. Because now there's... you could talk about ROI, and we could go look at the ROIC of the”▶ Listen · 4:40 ⚑

Gavin Baker is bullish on xAI, pointing to Grok 4.3 being on the Pareto frontier of frontier models, the Composer 2.5 breakthrough demonstrating the power of Cursor's proprietary coding data on Colossus compute, and the launch of Grok Build as a full agentic harness — together making xAI a legitimate top-4 AI competitor.

“Cursor's Composer 2.5 model came out this week... this is Pareto dominant. This is just 3, 4 weeks of doing reinforcement learning on Colossus 2 with Cursor's data... Composer 2.5 is literally well outside the Pareto frontier. And that's”▶ Listen · 50:04 ⚑

Gavin Baker argues Nvidia's earnings single-handedly validated CoreWeave and Neo-clouds by proving GPU useful lives extend well beyond 4-5 years, enabling long-duration asset-backed financing at low rates and making the business model far more profitable than bears projected.

“when CoreWeave and all these NeoClouds came public... there was a big bear case that hey, these guys are amortizing their GPUs and CPUs over 4, 5, 6 years, and that's way too short of a lifespan... now that we've just aggregated”▶ Listen · 1:19:55 ⚑