Business intelligence software firm that has converted its treasury primarily into Bitcoin holdings.Yahoo Finance ↗microstrategy.com ↗
3 takes · first discussed Dec 7, 2024 · last Dec 20, 2024
Every call, plotted at the price the day they made it.
Jason mentions loading up on MSTR while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin, suggesting a hedged or arbitrage-oriented trade rather than a directional conviction on the company as a long-term investment.
Gavin Baker warns that MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy is unsustainable at scale because the underlying business generates only ~$400M revenue, insufficient to service debt if Bitcoin loses its luster as collateral.
The overall sentiment toward MicroStrategy across the provided theses leans cautious to bearish, with the two guest contributors — Gavin Baker and Joe Lonsdale — both expressing medium-conviction concern about the company's leveraged Bitcoin strategy. Baker's critique centers on a structural mismatch: MicroStrategy's core business generates only ~$400M in revenue, which he argues is too small to reliably service its debt if Bitcoin's credibility as collateral falters. Lonsdale echoes this unease, warning that the leverage structure is unusually risky and that retail investors are not adequately scrutinizing what they are buying into. Jason offers a more ambiguous, low-conviction stance — rather than a directional bet on the company, he describes a hedged trade of buying MSTR while shorting Bitcoin, signaling tactical opportunism rather than fundamental enthusiasm or outright opposition.
Jason mentions loading up on MSTR while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin, suggesting a hedged or arbitrage-oriented trade rather than a directional conviction on the company as a long-term investment.
My last day trade is I'm loading up on MSTR and Bitcoin. I'm shorting Bitcoin and I'm buying MSTR. I don't know what that—”1:26:53
Gavin Baker warns that MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy is unsustainable at scale because the underlying business generates only ~$400M revenue, insufficient to service debt if Bitcoin loses its luster as collateral.
his interest expense on his convertible notes is $75 million off the top of my head... the underlying business that pays the interest expense on the debt only does $400 million a year in revenue... unless debt investors have absolute”41:32