Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues that Anthropic's regulatory strategy — advocating for government model approval processes — has backfired with the Fable rollback, and that the company should not be rewarded with the regulatory capture it sought, though he believes Fable should be returned to market once the jailbreak is resolved.

“We should not reward Dario by giving him exactly what he's always craved, which is some sort of labyrinthine government approval process that does reward regulatory capture. So I hope that very soon now... they should be allowed to come”▶ Listen · 56:18 ⚑

Gavin Baker argues Anthropic would trade at roughly $3 trillion as a public company, based on projected revenue well over $100 billion by year-end 2025, massive 2028 revenue potential, and high gross margins on inference-dominated revenue.

“I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today, and it's very important.”▶ Listen · 1:28:28 ⚑

Gavin Baker identifies NVIDIA as the American open-source AI champion, noting they have the capability to release a competitive open-weight model and stand to benefit from the shift of economic value from frontier labs to AI infrastructure as open-source models proliferate.

“NVIDIA is the American open source champion. They can release GLM 5.2 or better whenever they want.”▶ Listen · 51:54 ⚑

Gavin Baker is a long-term holder of SpaceX since 2018 and is not a seller, arguing against the short thesis based on lockup selling pressure and noting that most long-term holders on the cap table already had ample liquidity opportunities over the past decade.

“I've had SpaceX since 2018.”▶ Listen · 1:30:05 ⚑

Gavin Baker is constructive on Cerebras as an investment, arguing the stock's decline below deal price is a technical/behavioral selling phenomenon rather than a reflection of fundamentals, and that the key forward metric is how quickly they can bring on power capacity to monetize their OpenAI contract.

“I would focus, as an investor, I think what matters here is not where they sit competitively, not what new demand they can bring on, but just how quickly can they bring on power.”▶ Listen · 1:35:00 ⚑

Gavin Baker argues Micron and HBM DRAM makers are the most important AI bottleneck, with new supply-chain agreements locking in floor prices above prior cycle peaks, and these stocks still trade cross-sectionally cheap relative to the rest of AI.

“these stocks still trade or cross-sectionally cheap relative to the rest of AI. Something I've been thinking about, memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30% to 40% of all hyperscaler CapEx next year.”▶ Listen · 1:06:01 ⚑