Develops autonomous vehicle technology and operates commercial robotaxi services in the US.waymo.com ↗
3 takes · first discussed Jan 4, 2025 · last Jan 31, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Chamath believes Waymo and Tesla will run away with the autonomous vehicle market and force consolidation among traditional auto OEMs.
Friedberg argues Waymo is a proven, scaling business with improving ROIC metrics, rapid market share gains (22% in SF in 15 months), and expects a major deal — IPO, large financing, or acquisition — in 2025.
Travis Kalanick is bullish on Waymo's technology maturity, noting it has normalized the robotaxi experience to the point where riders don't think twice, though he flags power grid constraints as the key bottleneck for scaling.
The hosts are broadly positive on Waymo, with agreement that the company has achieved meaningful technological maturity and real-world traction. Friedberg provides the most detailed operational case, pointing to rapid market share gains (22% in SF within 15 months) and improving unit economics from a new, lower-cost hardware platform, and specifically predicts a major corporate event — IPO, large financing, or acquisition — in 2025. Chamath takes a more macro view, arguing Waymo and Tesla will dominate the autonomous vehicle market and trigger consolidation among legacy automakers. Guest Travis Kalanick corroborates the technology readiness angle, noting the rider experience has become unremarkable in a positive sense, but uniquely flags power grid infrastructure as a key constraint on Waymo's ability to scale — a concern not raised by the other hosts.
Chamath believes Waymo and Tesla will run away with the autonomous vehicle market and force consolidation among traditional auto OEMs.
I think that Waymo and Tesla are going to run away with this market, and I think it's going to force a bunch of consolidation in the traditional auto OEMs.”1:24:52
Friedberg argues Waymo is a proven, scaling business with improving ROIC metrics, rapid market share gains (22% in SF in 15 months), and expects a major deal — IPO, large financing, or acquisition — in 2025.
Waymo is now at 22% market share of rides in SF... they also just moved the hardware platform over to a new device. That's supposedly going to bring the CapEx significantly down... you could see a big deal with Waymo this year.”54:22
Travis Kalanick is bullish on Waymo's technology maturity, noting it has normalized the robotaxi experience to the point where riders don't think twice, though he flags power grid constraints as the key bottleneck for scaling.
You get in a Waymo today and it's like, you're not even thinking twice. You're just like, it's all good. You just get in, you get out... The technology works.”1:26:07