Develops autonomous vehicle technology and operates commercial robotaxi services in the US.waymo.com ↗
4 takes · first discussed Jan 4, 2025 · last Oct 24, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Chamath argues Silver Lake's investment implies a credible path to a Waymo IPO, and that Google must deliver on the promise of a liquidity event or risk setting a bad precedent for outside investors.
Friedberg is bullish on Waymo, citing it capturing 22% market share in SF in just 15 months, improving ROIC from new hardware, and national expansion, predicting a major financing, IPO, or M&A deal in 2025.
Travis Kalanick views Waymo as having a proven, normalized technology that genuinely works today, while flagging that its long-term competitive position depends on solving manufacturing scale and the electric grid constraint.
All four hosts are bullish on Waymo, with no dissenting views expressed across the covered periods. Friedberg and Chamath both point to strong and accelerating commercial traction — Friedberg highlighting 22% ride-share market capture in San Francisco within 15 months, and Chamath noting 250,000 rides per week across just a few cities while arguing Alphabet's market valuation assigns Waymo zero credit. Guest Travis Kalanick reinforces the bull case from a product standpoint, affirming the technology is genuinely proven and normalized today, though he flags manufacturing scale and electric grid capacity as key long-term risks to watch. On the path to liquidity, Friedberg predicted a major financing, IPO, or M&A event in 2025, and Chamath's later thesis echoes this, arguing that Silver Lake's investment signals a credible IPO path and that Google is now obligated to deliver a liquidity event for outside investors.
Chamath argues Silver Lake's investment implies a credible path to a Waymo IPO, and that Google must deliver on the promise of a liquidity event or risk setting a bad precedent for outside investors.
There's no way somebody as smart as Silver Lake comes in if they think there's not a path to liquidity... Now it's up to Google to live up to their part of the bargain because if it doesn't get liquid, it sets a very bad precedent.”38:57
Friedberg is bullish on Waymo, citing it capturing 22% market share in SF in just 15 months, improving ROIC from new hardware, and national expansion, predicting a major financing, IPO, or M&A deal in 2025.
in 15 months, in November of 2024, Waymo is now at 22% market share of rides in SF... they also just moved the hardware platform over to a new device that's supposedly going to bring the CapEx significantly down... You could see something”54:43
Travis Kalanick views Waymo as having a proven, normalized technology that genuinely works today, while flagging that its long-term competitive position depends on solving manufacturing scale and the electric grid constraint.
You get in a Waymo today and it's like, you're not even thinking twice. You're just like, it's all good. You just get in, you get out...The technology works.”1:26:07