Jason argues OpenAI's closed-source, data-stealing approach has backfired as DeepSeek open-sourced a comparable model, and that large language models are depreciating assets being commoditized, making OpenAI's core product structurally less defensible.
the fastest deprecating asset in the world was a large language model. He's been proven right. They're not worth anything. They're all going to be open source. They're all going to be commoditized, and that's for the best of humanity.” ⚑
Sacks argues it is premature to conclude frontier model companies like OpenAI have no competitive advantage, noting OpenAI is already on O3 with its frontier ahead of R1, and that companies will take countermeasures against distillation to protect their lead.
OpenAI is on O3 now. Its frontier is ahead of where R1 is...those frontier model companies now having seen what might've happened with distillation, have a pretty strong incentive to make sure that doesn't happen again.” ⚑
Chamath sees OpenAI's potential $40B raise at $340B valuation as a bet that ChatGPT becomes the next consumer killer app with 1B+ MAUs, putting it on a direct collision course with Meta, but questions whether overcapitalization in an open-source world is a strategic liability.
if OpenAI raises $40 billion at $340 billion, that just hit the wire. The underwriting logic at $340 billion...it is the wrapper, meaning ChatGPT is the next killer app. It's getting to a billion-plus MAU, hundreds of millions of DAO.” ⚑