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E214Feb 7, 2025

DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s

Takes
4
Companies
2
Playing out
2
Going against
1
Who weighed in
3 bullish1 neutral
DiscussedGoogleSpaceX

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

GoogleGOOGL+91.9% over 1yr 5mo
GAntonio GraciasCommentarytracking with the call

Antonio Gracias argues Google will win in AI because it has its own custom chips (TPUs), a strong focus on ROIC, and a monopoly ad business to fund infrastructure — making the $75B CapEx justifiable on a return-on-capital basis.

Google will also win because they have their TensorFlow chips. They make some of their own chips. They do focus on ROIC, and they have a great monopoly to kind of fund it all.
FriedbergFriedbergCommentarytracking with the call

Friedberg views Google's $75B CapEx as a positive signal, arguing Google has historically been the most frugal and well-managed infrastructure investor, with strong ROIC discipline and a credible line of sight to monetize the investment — and the spend demonstrates confidence that search can evolve to chat.

I would view the $75 billion CapEx actually as a very positive signal for the company. I think that it means that they have a really strong line of sight on how they're going to have full utilization and great return on this.
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath argues Google has the best broad-based AI models and a money machine in ads that directly benefits from AI-driven optimization, but needs better disclosure on how its $75B CapEx is allocated between high-return ad optimization and more speculative pre-training.

Google's models are probably the best of all the models across a broad base of capabilities if you test for them... The other thing that Google has is a money machine that directly benefits from these AI-driven optimizations on ad
SpaceXSPCX-9.7% over 1yr 5mo
GAntonio GraciasCommentarytracking against the call

Antonio Gracias argues xAI's Colossus data center — the densest coherent GPU cluster in the world, built cheaply and quickly — will deliver the highest ROIC of any AI player and produce superior training outcomes, giving xAI a durable competitive edge.

XAI will have the highest return on capital, and I also think the best training data, and therefore will win.