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E215Feb 15, 2025

JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant

Takes
5
Companies
4
Playing out
1
Going against
0
Who weighed in
1 bullish1 bearish3 neutral

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

JasonJasonCommentary

Jason argues there is a non-trivial chance OpenAI loses the New York Times copyright lawsuit badly, potentially facing injunctions and being forced to pay large revenue-sharing settlements to content holders, which would structurally impair its business model.

I that there is a non-zero chance, like it might be 5 or 10%, that OpenAI is going to lose the New York Times lawsuit and they're going to lose it hard and there could be injunctions.
GNaval RavikantCommentary

Naval argues that OpenAI's conversion from nonprofit to fully private/for-profit is self-dealing and unjustifiable — the nonprofit portion should remain in control, and the privatization of the whole entity for Sam Altman's personal benefit undermines the mission and represents a structural governance failure.

I just don't understand this conversion. I mean, there was a, there was a board coup, right? The board tried to fire Sam and Sam took over the board. Now it's his handpicked board. So it also looks like self-dealing, right?
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath cites Anduril stepping in to execute a $24B US Army contract that Microsoft could not deliver on as evidence that Anduril has genuine technological superiority in defense execution.

What did they do? They went to Anduril. Now, why did they go to Anduril? Because Anduril has the technological supremacy to actually execute.
FriedbergFriedbergCommentary

Friedberg highlights Polymarket's superior accuracy in predicting RFK Jr. and other cabinet confirmations versus mainstream media, citing it as evidence of the platform's information edge and reliability.

If you look at Polymarket, Polymarket had it all right a couple weeks ago... the media was like, no way he's getting confirmed... But Polymarket knows. It's so interesting, huh?
New York TimesNYT+52.4% over 1yr 4mo
JasonJasonCommentarytracking with the call

Jason argues the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI could be transformative for the company — winning licensing revenue from LLMs could eventually exceed advertising and subscription revenue, renewing the media company's economic model.

I think the New York Times will make more money from licenses from LLMs than they will make from advertising or subscriptions eventually. This will renew the model almost.