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E216Feb 21, 2025

The Stablecoin Future, Milei's Memecoin, DOGE for the DoD, Grok 3, Why Stripe Stays Private

Takes
3
Companies
3
Playing out
1
Going against
0
Who weighed in
Chamath
1 bullish2 neutral

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

SpaceXSPCX-9.7% over 1yr 4mo
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath is highly impressed by xAI's Grok 3 results, arguing that Elon's ability to leverage Tesla Powerpacks, cross-company engineering talent, and artificial time constraints to build the Colossus supercluster in record time proves the keiretsu model creates an enduring competitive advantage in AI.

the size of that cluster made no sense. And it could only be a result like this where he basically proved that there was still value in pre-training where size actually led to better outcomes.
NvidiaNVDA+75.6% over 1yr 4mo
ChamathChamathCommentarytracking with the call

Chamath turned more bullish on Nvidia after Grok 3's results demonstrated that pre-training on massive GPU clusters still yields significant gains, suggesting the massive AI capex buildout is justified.

So now I'm a little bullish on NVIDIA. I'm like, oh my God, if this is true, then all this CapEx may be justified. You could be buying a lot of stuff.
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath regrets never investing in Stripe across 17 years, viewing it as one of the great missed opportunities given its extraordinary growth to $1T+ in annual payment volume, profitability, and expanding financial services platform.

why didn't I just pick up the phone and call them at any point in the last 17 years. What am I thinking?