Enterprise application software (basket)

IGVBearish

ETF tracking an index of publicly listed enterprise software and SaaS companies.Yahoo Finance ↗

A sector/theme exposure, not a company — priced via the IGV ETF as a clean proxy. Excluded from the index and host funds.

5 takes · first discussed Oct 25, 2024 · last Jan 10, 2026

Since their bearish call

+9.1%

$101.68 → $92.41 · since Jan 6, 2025· stance 184d old

Stock +0.2% since first discussed Oct 25, 2024

since first discussed · 1yr 8mo

How the calls played out

Click a call to see the price move since it aired.

prices through Jul 13, 2026

click a chip for the quote + move since mention

Where they stand now

Chamath

Bearish

Chamath doubles down on enterprise SaaS as worst performing asset, coining 'software industrial complex' to describe bloated legacy vendors whose go-to-market motions and heuristic-wrapped CRUD databases will be disrupted by AI-native competitors with order-of-magnitude lower cost structures.

E209 · Jan 4, 20252 calls ↓

Friedberg

Bearish

Friedberg picks the software industrial complex (licensed SaaS companies) as his biggest business loser of 2026, arguing AI agents will shrink the $3-4 trillion maintenance and migration revenue opportunity aggressively.

E257 · Jan 10, 20262 calls ↓

GGuests

Bearish

Gavin Baker predicts enterprise application software will be the worst performing asset of 2025, as AI agents built by cloud providers and frontier labs will displace white-collar workers these companies serve, and SaaS vendors lack their own models or compute to compete.

E209 · Jan 4, 20251 call ↓

The discussion

The hosts are uniformly and strongly bearish on enterprise application software, with no dissenting views across the sampled period. Chamath, Friedberg, and guest Gavin Baker all argue that AI — whether in the form of agents built by cloud providers and frontier labs, or in-house tools assembled by enterprise customers themselves — will structurally displace the white-collar workers and per-seat pricing models that traditional SaaS vendors depend on. Chamath frames legacy vendors as a bloated "software industrial complex" with high-cost go-to-market motions and heuristic-wrapped CRUD databases that AI-native competitors will undercut by orders of magnitude, while Friedberg specifically singles out vertical SaaS and warns that the $3–4 trillion maintenance and migration revenue pool will contract aggressively through 2026. Baker adds that SaaS vendors are structurally disadvantaged because they own neither the frontier models nor the compute required to compete, making displacement by cloud providers and labs difficult to counter.

How they got there

Chamath2 mentions since Oct 25, 2024

NegativeE209Jan 4, 2025⚑

the software industrial complex. These are these large bloated, in many cases, enterprise software companies… I think the software industrial complex, these old mainline traditional enterprise software companies, I think you're going to sta”1:25:06

Friedberg2 mentions since Jan 4, 2025

’26

NegativeE257Jan 10, 2026⚑

I will pick the software industrial complex... I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively... It's going to impact SaaS companies, public SaaS companies particularly, quite severely in 2026.”

GGuests1 mention since Jan 4, 2025

Gavin BakerNegativeE209Jan 4, 2025⚑

Gavin, enterprise application software. Okay, this is basically just about like— 2025 is going to be, I think, the year of agents, particularly in the second half… enterprise application software, I think, is going to be in a lot of pain… t”1:23:35

iAbout these quotes

Quotes are machine-transcribed from the episode audio — use the Listen links to verify any take against the source, or the ⚑ link to report a problem. Takes marked unverified, low-conviction, or commentary-only never move stances, the index, or the funds.