Enterprise application software / SaaS (basket)

IGVBearish

ETF tracking an index of publicly listed enterprise software and SaaS companies.Yahoo Finance ↗

A sector/theme exposure, not a company — priced via the IGV ETF as a clean proxy. Excluded from the index and host funds.

4 takes · first discussed Jan 4, 2025 · last Jan 10, 2026

Since their bearish call

+12.3%

since Jan 4, 2025· stance 159d old

since Jan 4, 2025 · 1yr 5mo

How the calls played out

Click a call to see the price move since it aired.

prices through Jun 18, 2026

click a chip for the quote + move since call

Where they stand now

Chamath

Bearish

Chamath argues the 'software industrial complex' — legacy enterprise software built on CRUD databases with expensive sales motions — will face severe competitive pressure from AI-native companies that can price an order of magnitude lower, causing fissures in 2025.

E209 · Jan 4, 20251 call ↓

Friedberg

Bearish

Friedberg predicts the $3-4T enterprise SaaS licensing/maintenance/migration complex will shrink aggressively in 2026 as AI agents and automation commoditize maintenance and migration work, severely impacting public SaaS companies' incremental revenue.

E257 · Jan 10, 20262 calls ↓

GGuests

Bearish

Gavin Baker picks enterprise application software as his worst performing asset of 2025, arguing AI agents will replace the white-collar workers these platforms serve, and that companies without their own models or compute cannot win the agentic era.

E209 · Jan 4, 20251 call ↓

The discussion

All four theses — from Gavin Baker, Chamath, and Friedberg (across two years) — are unanimously and highly bearish on enterprise application software and SaaS. The core shared argument is that AI-native competitors and in-house AI tooling will structurally undercut legacy enterprise software by displacing the white-collar workflows these platforms serve, compressing per-seat and licensing pricing by an order of magnitude or more. Baker adds that incumbents lack their own models and compute, making them ill-positioned to compete in an agentic world, while Chamath emphasizes top-down CFO/CEO pressure on IT spend as the catalyst for disruption. Friedberg is the most persistent bear, flagging vertical SaaS per-seat pricing compression in 2025 and then broadening his call in 2026 to the entire $3–4T enterprise SaaS licensing and maintenance complex, predicting severe contraction in incremental revenue for public SaaS companies.

How they got there

Chamath1 mention since Jan 4, 2025

BearishE209Jan 4, 2025⚑

the software industrial complex... these are these large bloated enterprise software companies... I think the go-to-market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs who start to exert pressure on their CIOs to manage spend. And in that world,”1:25:06

Friedberg2 mentions since Jan 4, 2025

’26

BearishE257Jan 10, 2026📌 scored call⚑

I will pick the software industrial complex... I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively... It's going to impact SaaS companies, public SaaS companies particularly, quite severely in 2026.”43:03

GGuests1 mention since Jan 4, 2025

BearishE209Jan 4, 2025📌 scored call⚑

enterprise application software, I think, is going to be in a lot of pain... they don't have their own models, they don't own their own compute, and I just don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of agents.”1:23:35

iAbout these quotes

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