Directional takes judged by each stock's move since this episode aired.
Jason predicts one of the Mag Seven (Apple, Meta, or Amazon) will make a $50B+ acquisition offer for Anthropic or another leading AI lab in 2026 as competition for LLM dominance intensifies.
I think it could be, one of the Mag Seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft, or an Amazon going out and trying to buy XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, Anthropic, one of those four. Anthropic comes to mind.” ⚑
Chamath predicts SpaceX will not pursue a standalone IPO but will instead reverse-merge into Tesla, meaning public investors won't get a direct SpaceX listing.
I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.” ⚑
Chamath's most contrarian prediction is that SpaceX will reverse-merge into Tesla rather than IPO independently, which would consolidate control of Elon Musk's two seminal assets onto one cap table — a major positive catalyst for Tesla shareholders.
My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.” ⚑
Jason predicts Amazon will have a massive year as it deploys robots to replace human workers, potentially becoming the first company where robots drive more of the bottom line than humans, while same-day delivery is already proving out the logistics advantage.
my prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is gonna have a massive year... I think they'll be the first corporate singularity, which is to say the first company to have more robots driving their bottom line than humans.” ⚑
Sacks argues Polymarket has evolved from a niche prediction market into a genuine news and insights platform with strong network effects, and expects a breakout year driven by exchange deals (Robinhood, Coinbase, potentially NASDAQ).
Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news... I do expect that after the deal we saw with NICEE, that all of the exchanges... we” ⚑
Sacks is bearish on Netflix unless it closes the Warner Brothers deal, citing commoditization of streaming content, shrinking content library due to creator economics (cost-plus-10% deals), and competition from independent creators on YouTube and other platforms.
It would be Netflix if they don't close the Warner Brothers deal. I do think Netflix's service is being challenged from all sides with deep content libraries... people would prefer not to work with Netflix. They only pay creators cost plus” ⚑
Sacks highlights enterprise SaaS names including ServiceNow as underperformers, citing structural headwinds from AI disrupting per-seat pricing models and the software industrial complex contracting.
ServiceNow down 30%, Workday down 18%, DocuSign down 23%, Dropbox down 9%, and Box down 6%, while the S&P was up 17%. I think it's worth highlighting, like, it was a challenging year for this enterprise SaaS business.” ⚑
Sacks argues Siemens and other capital equipment sellers are major beneficiaries of 100% accelerated depreciation under the new tax bill, driving a massive US infrastructure/capital equipment buildout and explaining Siemens' surging stock.
This is why Siemens stock is through the roof. All of this capital equipment, you get to write it off 100% year one. It's creating a massive infrastructure buildout in the US.” ⚑
Amazon