A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.
Friedberg's contrarian prediction is that SpaceX will not IPO but instead reverse merge into Tesla, allowing Elon Musk to consolidate control of his two seminal assets onto one cap table.
My contrarian belief number one is I don't think SpaceX will IPO. I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.” ⚑
Jason picks Amazon as his biggest business winner of 2026, citing the company's robotics deployment surge, same-day delivery expansion, and his belief it will be the first company to have more robots driving its bottom line than humans.
my prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is gonna have a massive year... I think they'll be the first corporate, uh, singularity, which is to say the first company to have more robots driving their bottom line than humans. So that's my predict” ⚑
Friedberg names hydrocarbons/oil as a poor-performing asset for 2026, arguing the trend in oil is inexorably down due to unstoppable electrification and energy storage trends shrinking oil's addressable market, with price more likely to hit $45/barrel than $65.
I think a very poor performing asset will be hydrocarbons. I just think that the trend in oil is inexorable and it's down... does it see $65 or $45? I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.” ⚑
Friedberg picks Copper as his best-performing asset prediction, citing massive global supply-demand shortfall (~70% short by 2040), copper's ubiquity in data centers, chips, and weapons systems, and the Trump-era national security framing that accelerates the need for domestic critical materials.
I will pick Copper... The asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper... we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed. And copper.” ⚑
Sacks picks Polymarket as his second biggest business winner of 2026, arguing it has evolved from a quirky prediction market into a genuine news and insights platform with strong network effects poised for a breakout year.
I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated. And I do expect that after the deal we saw” ⚑
Friedberg picks the software industrial complex (licensed SaaS companies) as his biggest business loser of 2026, arguing AI agents will shrink the $3-4 trillion maintenance and migration revenue opportunity aggressively.
I will pick the software industrial complex... I think you're going to see that total economic opportunity shrink and contract aggressively... It's going to impact SaaS companies, public SaaS companies particularly, quite severely in 2026.”
Chamath picks the IPO market as his biggest business winner of 2026, predicting a wave of successful public listings creating trillions in new market cap and reversing the trend of shrinking public companies.
I said the IPO. I think 2026 is going to be a big year for IPOs. I'm not going to say which ones. Oh, great. I think there's gonna be a bunch of 'em, a bunch of successful ones, and I think we could see trillions of dollars of new market ca” ⚑
Sacks picks Netflix as potentially the worst performing asset of 2026 if it doesn't close the Warner Brothers deal, citing commoditization pressure from rivals with deep content libraries and creator backlash against its cost-plus-10% terms shrinking its content pipeline.
It would be Netflix if they don't close the Warner Brothers deal. I do think Netflix's service is being challenged from all sides with deep content libraries... their content library's gonna shrink because of the natural economic forces.” ⚑
Sacks picks Huawei as his #1 biggest business winner of 2026, citing its partnership with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack and firing on all cylinders in a way that will outperform Western expectations.
My number 1 is Huawei, which I've mentioned in the past out of China. I think Huawei's effort to partner with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack. And they're just firing on all cylinders. I do think keep an eye on Huawei over the next year” ⚑
Chamath picks California luxury real estate as his worst performing asset of 2026, citing the wealth tax overhang and hostile business environment driving capital and residents out of the state.
I just said California luxury real estate because of the overhang of the wealth tax and all the things we're talking about.” ⚑
Jason picks the US dollar as his worst performing asset of 2026, citing unabated debt growth and potential 50% military budget increases adding to debasement pressures.
I went with the US dollar in different permutations of how you can buy it because our debt continues to grow unabated... I just think it's going to be hard for the USD because we're talking about, we've been adding, I think we're going to a”
Jason picks a basket of gambling and prediction market stocks — naming Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase — as his best performing asset of 2026, betting rate cuts and consumer cash will fuel wagering activity.
my pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood PolyMarket Prize Picks. Gambling, wagering,— space because people will be able to have a little cash around to make some bets. So you can buy Coinbase in there too, I guess.” ⚑
Chamath highlights capital equipment qualifying for 100% accelerated depreciation under the big beautiful bill as a very hot asset category, making those markets super hot with companies like Caterpillar and Siemens as major beneficiaries.
the category of assets that qualify for accelerated depreciation, capital equipment... There's now 100% accelerated depreciation... man, that is making those markets super hot right now.” ⚑
Sacks picks traditional media stocks as a worst performing asset for 2026 if Netflix closes the Warner Brothers deal, citing the rise of independent creators on YouTube and other platforms deeply challenging legacy media.
my worst performing asset would be traditional media stocks. And I do think that they're going to underperform. There is just such an incredible variety of high-quality content that's emerging from independent creators that are leveraging” ⚑
Amazon