Credit derivative instrument used to hedge or speculate on default risk, treated here as a macro asset idea.
1 take · first discussed Jan 4, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Among the four All-In hosts, only Chamath offered a thesis on Credit Default Swaps, framing a long-CDS position as his top asymmetric "best-performing-asset" idea for 2025. He views the trade as low-probability insurance — a relatively cheap hedge that could deliver outsized returns if credit defaults or market volatility spike. No other hosts weighed in, so there is neither consensus nor disagreement to note. The overall stance is cautiously bullish on CDS protection, driven purely by asymmetric payoff logic rather than a base-case expectation of credit stress.
Chamath picks long credit default swap protection as his asymmetric best-performing-asset idea for 2025, framing it as low-probability insurance that could pay off massively if volatility or defaults spike.
I would be long CDS... if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.”1:15:06