Basket representing traditional automobile manufacturers transitioning from internal combustion to electric vehicles.
2 takes · first discussed Jan 4, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Chamath predicts the collapse and mega-merger wave of traditional auto OEMs in 2025, arguing they are uninvestable 'melting icebergs' caught between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, with Honda/Nissan merger as a leading signal.
Gavin Baker agrees that legacy auto OEMs are in deep trouble, caught between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, with the only escape being significant government intervention as national champions.
Both Chamath and guest Gavin Baker are strongly bearish on legacy auto OEMs, with high conviction, characterizing them as structurally doomed businesses squeezed between Tesla and Chinese EV makers. Chamath predicts 2025 will bring outright collapses and mega-mergers — citing the Honda/Nissan deal as an early signal — and calls the entire group uninvestable "melting icebergs" with no clear strategic path forward. Baker fully endorses this view, adding that legacy OEMs are already losing their Chinese business due to uncompetitive products, and argues the only realistic escape route is substantial government intervention to prop them up as national champions. There is no meaningful disagreement between the two; both see the competitive trap as existential absent extraordinary external support.
Chamath predicts the collapse and mega-merger wave of traditional auto OEMs in 2025, arguing they are uninvestable 'melting icebergs' caught between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, with Honda/Nissan merger as a leading signal.
I think this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional auto OEMs... these are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs... What does Volkswagen do? It's not clear. What does Stellantis do? It's not clear.”48:13
Gavin Baker agrees that legacy auto OEMs are in deep trouble, caught between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, with the only escape being significant government intervention as national champions.
I agree 100% with Chamath... They're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore... they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs... absent really significant government support, they're”48:49