Established traditional automakers manufacturing and selling internal combustion and transitioning electric vehicles.
2 takes · first discussed Jan 4, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Chamath predicts traditional auto OEMs (Volkswagen, Stellantis, Honda, Nissan, etc.) are uninvestable melting icebergs caught between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, and expects a wave of mega-mergers as capital markets force consolidation.
Gavin Baker agrees traditional auto OEMs will lose their Chinese business and face an existential squeeze between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, with government intervention as the only escape valve.
Both Chamath and guest Gavin Baker are high-conviction bears on legacy auto OEMs, agreeing that companies like Volkswagen, Stellantis, Honda, and Nissan face an existential squeeze between Tesla and competitive Chinese EV makers. Chamath frames these companies as "melting icebergs" with no clear strategic path forward, expecting capital markets to force a wave of mega-mergers and consolidation. Baker reinforces this view, specifically highlighting the loss of the Chinese market as a near-certainty given legacy OEMs' inability to compete on product. The only point of nuance Baker raises is that government intervention could represent the primary risk to this otherwise shared bearish thesis.
Chamath predicts traditional auto OEMs (Volkswagen, Stellantis, Honda, Nissan, etc.) are uninvestable melting icebergs caught between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, and expects a wave of mega-mergers as capital markets force consolidation.
the European OEMs are in real trouble. You know, what does Volkswagen do? It's not clear. What does Stellantis do? It's not clear. These are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs.”48:24
Gavin Baker agrees traditional auto OEMs will lose their Chinese business and face an existential squeeze between Tesla and Chinese EV makers, with government intervention as the only escape valve.
They're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore... they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs. And I think the only way that this doesn't— Chamath's— the only risk to Chamath's”48:59