iShares ETF tracking an index of US Treasury bonds with 7–10 year maturities.Yahoo Finance ↗
A sector/theme exposure, not a company — priced via the IEF ETF as a clean proxy. Excluded from the index and host funds.
3 takes · first discussed Oct 25, 2024 · last Apr 5, 2025
Click a call to see the price move since it aired.
Sacks says the easy positioning call is to avoid US Treasuries, citing looming inflation, rising debt service costs, and the risk that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle was premature.
Friedberg says he owns zero fixed income, citing inevitable debt monetization, inflation risk, and the structural exit of China from the Treasury market.
Ben Shapiro (guest) repositioned his own portfolio toward Treasuries / light stocks after the State of the Union, anticipating tariff-driven market volatility, and that trade has now paid off.
The dominant view among the hosts is bearish on US Treasuries, with both Sacks and Friedberg expressing high conviction against holding them. Sacks argues that a 4.2% 10-year yield is unattractive given lingering inflation and debt crisis risks, while Friedberg goes further, holding zero fixed income and pointing to inevitable debt monetization and China's structural exit from the Treasury market as key reasons to stay away entirely. Guest Ben Shapiro offers a contrasting, medium-conviction bull case, noting that he shifted his own portfolio toward bonds and lighter equities after the State of the Union in anticipation of tariff-driven volatility — a trade he says has since paid off. The hosts themselves are aligned in their bearishness, while Shapiro's bullish view is presented as a tactical, shorter-term positioning call rather than a structural one.
Sacks says the easy positioning call is to avoid US Treasuries, citing looming inflation, rising debt service costs, and the risk that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle was premature.
the easy one to avoid is treasuries, right? I mean, do you really want to accept a 4.2% yield for 10 years to own a US bond? And with the looming inflation that is still out there, or the looming debt crisis that might be out there.”39:51
Ben Shapiro (guest) repositioned his own portfolio toward Treasuries / light stocks after the State of the Union, anticipating tariff-driven market volatility, and that trade has now paid off.
I called my financial advisor after the State of the Union Address and told them to rejigger my stock and bond ratio in my portfolio because I figured that something like this was going to happen... I went light stocks, I'll say that.”43:50