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All episodes← E221E223 →
E222Apr 5, 2025

DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias

Takes
4
Companies
4
Playing out
1
Going against
0
Who weighed in
ChamathSacksFriedberg
2 bullish1 bearish1 neutral
DiscussedMagnificent Seven (basket)US TreasuriesCredit Default Swaps (CDS / corporate credit protection)Newsmax

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

Magnificent Seven (basket)MAGS+67.1% over 1yr 3mo
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks had predicted earlier in the year that the Magnificent Seven would shrink below 30% of the S&P 500 in 2025, framing it as 'free money' because the Trump administration explicitly does not prioritize the asset economy or mega-cap tech stocks, and that call has now played out.

This was free money. This was like the stock market giving out free money... it was very clear to me early on that the rhetoric had shifted to say, 'We care about MAGA. We care about people that have working class and middle class jobs.'” ⚑
US TreasuriesIEFbarely moved · 1yr 3mo
GGuestCommentarybarely moved since

Ben Shapiro (guest) repositioned his own portfolio toward Treasuries / light stocks after the State of the Union, anticipating tariff-driven market volatility, and that trade has now paid off.

I called my financial advisor after the State of the Union Address and told them to rejigger my stock and bond ratio in my portfolio because I figured that something like this was going to happen... I went light stocks, I'll say that.” ⚑
Credit Default Swaps (CDS / corporate credit protection)private
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath recommends buying CDS (credit default swap protection) as an asymmetric insurance policy against a corporate debt default wave in 2025, framing it as a low-probability but extremely high-return hedge given tariff-driven recession risk and stretched corporate debt covenants.

I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance. I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps... if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.” ⚑
NewsmaxNMAX-82.5% over 1yr 3mo
FriedbergFriedbergCommentarytracking with the call

Ben Shapiro (guest) argues Newsmax's post-IPO trading is a GameStop-style retail meme event disconnected from fundamentals, and expects the stock to revert to a $2–4 billion market cap range from its peak above $20 billion.

the PE ratios on the Newsmax trade are, are, you know, ridiculous in the sense that it's going to revert back to something closer to normalcy... It'll end up being, you know, total market cap will probably be somewhere when it, when it” ⚑