Financial derivative contracts that transfer credit risk of corporate debt between two parties, functioning as insurance against default.
1 take · first discussed Apr 5, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Only one host, Chamath Palihapitiya, has offered a view here, framing long CDS positions as an asymmetric insurance play against a potential corporate debt default wave in 2025. His thesis rests on three interconnected pressures: tariff-driven revenue compression, EBITDA-linked debt covenants that could trigger defaults, and broader macro fragility — with the trade reportedly already up roughly 7x in about three months at the time of his comments. No other hosts weighed in, so there is neither corroboration nor dissent from Friedberg, Calacanis, or Levchin on this specific idea. The overall panel stance is therefore inconclusive beyond Chamath's medium-conviction bullish view.
Chamath recommends buying CDS (credit default swaps) as an asymmetric insurance policy against a corporate debt default wave in 2025, citing tariff-driven revenue pressure, debt covenants tied to EBITDA, and overall macro fragility — noting the trade has already returned ~7x in roughly 3 months.
I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance...I'm buying protection that there is no default event in 2025...if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.”1:47:04