Basket of companies providing technology, logistics, and consulting services primarily to government clients.
1 take · first discussed Jan 4, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Guest Gavin Baker holds a high-conviction bearish view on companies that derive more than 35% of their revenue from U.S. government contracts, naming them among the biggest potential business losers of 2025. His thesis centers on intensified spending scrutiny driven by DOGE, which he expects to put significant pressure on this category of contractors. No other hosts weighed in on this basket, so the view reflects Baker's perspective alone. The 35% revenue threshold is presented as a key risk marker rather than a blanket condemnation of all government-adjacent businesses.
Gavin Baker predicts companies with more than 35% of revenue from U.S. government contracts will be the biggest business losers of 2025 due to DOGE-driven spending scrutiny.
Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.”39:28