Companies providing IT, consulting, logistics, and operational services primarily to government clients.
1 take · first discussed Jan 4, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Guest Gavin Baker holds a high-conviction bearish view on government service providers heading into 2025, arguing that any company drawing more than 35% of its revenue from U.S. government contracts is among the biggest business losers of the year. His thesis centers on DOGE-era fiscal scrutiny, with the expectation that increased oversight will lead to meaningful spending cuts for these contractors. No other hosts weighed in with a competing or supporting view, leaving Baker's perspective as the sole thesis on record.
Gavin Baker predicts that companies deriving more than 35% of revenue from US government contracts will be the biggest business losers of 2025 as DOGE-era scrutiny leads to spending cuts.
Government service providers. You do not, you do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue. They might check the bill. Crazy thought.”39:28