Financial derivatives that allow investors to hedge or speculate on corporate bond default risk.
1 take · first discussed Apr 5, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Among the four All-In hosts, only Chamath has offered a view on buying CDS protection on corporate debt, expressing medium conviction. He frames it as an asymmetric insurance trade rather than a high-probability bet, arguing that tariff-driven revenue pressure on leveraged companies and covenant risk could trigger a wave of corporate defaults in 2025 — a scenario he believes would make CDS the best-performing asset of the year. He notes the trade had already returned roughly 7x at the time of his comments. No other hosts have weighed in, so no cross-host agreement or disagreement can be established from the available material.
Chamath recommends buying CDS protection on corporate debt as an asymmetric insurance trade against a wave of corporate defaults in 2025, citing tariff-driven revenue pressure on leveraged companies and covenant risk, noting the trade has already returned ~7x.
I would be long CDS. So what am I buying? I am buying insurance... this is not something I think will happen... but if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025.”1:47:04