A macro-focused thematic position in credit default swaps used to hedge or speculate on credit risk.
1 take · first discussed Jan 4, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Among the four hosts, only Chamath has articulated a position on CDS, expressing medium-conviction bullishness on buying credit protection as an asymmetric macro hedge heading into 2025. His thesis rests on a combination of record debt levels, elevated interest rates, and index concentration risks, which he believes create conditions ripe for a financial crisis — one that would make long CDS the standout trade if it materializes. He explicitly frames it as an insurance policy rather than a high-probability bet, drawing a parallel to Bill Ackman's well-known CDS trade at the onset of COVID. No other hosts offered a view on this trade, so no cross-host agreement or disagreement can be assessed.
Chamath says he would be long CDS (buying credit protection) as an asymmetric insurance policy against a financial crisis in 2025, given record debt levels, high rates, and index concentration risks.
I would be long CDS... I am buying insurance using credit default swaps. I'm buying what's called protection... if it hits, it will be the best performing asset of 2025. It will be the equivalent of Ackman buying CDS right at the beginning”1:15:58