Manufactures commercial jetliners, military aircraft, and space and defense systems globally.Yahoo Finance ↗boeing.com ↗
3 takes · first discussed Aug 16, 2024 · last Mar 22, 2025
Every call, plotted at the price the day they made it.
Chamath is deeply bearish on Boeing, arguing that incentive structures focused on EPS rather than safety and engineering excellence have created deep structural problems across all three of its major business divisions.
Friedberg predicts legacy defense and aerospace providers like Boeing will be among the biggest business losers of 2025, driven by a shift in US defense spending toward tech-oriented, ROI-driven contractors and Boeing's own failures at scale.
Cyan Bannister characterizes Boeing as a clear loser in the commercial spaceflight market, having badly fumbled the Starliner program and ceding ground irreversibly to SpaceX.
All three hosts hold bearish views on Boeing, with no disagreement on direction, though their emphases differ. Chamath (high conviction) sees the core problem as a structural one rooted in incentive design — decades of prioritizing EPS over safety and engineering excellence have degraded the company from within across all its major divisions. Friedberg (medium conviction) focuses on Boeing's place in a broader secular shift, arguing that bloated, bureaucratic legacy defense and aerospace contractors are losing ground to leaner, tech-oriented, ROI-driven competitors, with Boeing serving as a prime example of institutional failure at scale. Guest Cyan Bannister (medium conviction) zeroes in specifically on the commercial spaceflight segment, contending that Boeing's mishandling of the Starliner program has handed SpaceX an irreversible competitive advantage. Taken together, the hosts paint a consistent picture of a company compromised by cultural, operational, and strategic failures across multiple business lines.
Chamath is deeply bearish on Boeing, arguing that incentive structures focused on EPS rather than safety and engineering excellence have created deep structural problems across all three of its major business divisions.
if the incentive is safety and world-class engineering, that's what you'll get. But if the incentive is earnings per share growth, then that's what you'll also get. And Boeing was a darling of the stock market for a very long time. And now”1:28:39
Friedberg predicts legacy defense and aerospace providers like Boeing will be among the biggest business losers of 2025, driven by a shift in US defense spending toward tech-oriented, ROI-driven contractors and Boeing's own failures at scale.
I went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Defense 1.0... I also just think like there's a lot of failure at scale with these businesses. They've gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic,”41:30
Cyan Bannister characterizes Boeing as a clear loser in the commercial spaceflight market, having badly fumbled the Starliner program and ceding ground irreversibly to SpaceX.
Boeing is the big loser here. You've really got to— you know, it's interesting to me how bad they just fumbled this.”1:15:19