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E234Jul 4, 2025

Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO

Takes
3
Companies
2
Playing out
1
Going against
0
Who weighed in
ChamathFriedberg
1 bullish1 bearish1 mixed
DiscussedFigmaAdobe

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

FriedbergFriedbergCommentary

Friedberg highlights Figma's strong financials — 40%+ revenue growth, 43% operating cash flow margin, 130% net revenue retention — as evidence of durable land-and-expand dynamics, though he acknowledges AI could overnight obsolete any software.

They ran a 43% operating cash flow margin in Q1. So in Q1 of this year, Figma generated $95 million of free cash flow. They've got net revenue retention of like 130%. So this land and expand is proven out and there's real durability.
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath sees Figma as a strong business but with AI uncertainty; he would go long Figma and short an equivalent amount of Adobe to capture the spread, as Adobe would re-rate faster than Figma in any AI-driven valuation compression.

if I could get like $50 or $100 million of Figma, I would probably be long it and I would short an equivalent Quantum of Adobe, and I would just book the spread.
AdobeADBE-40.7% over 1yr
ChamathChamathBearishtracking with the call

Chamath argues Adobe will face faster valuation compression than Figma in an AI-disruption scenario, making it the short leg of a Figma/Adobe pair trade.

The person who's going to take a retrade on valuation faster than Figma will be Adobe. And so you'll be hedged and you'll probably make money that way.