Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO

FriedbergBullish✗ wrong so far

Friedberg is bullish on Figma's proven land-and-expand model, citing 40%+ revenue growth, 43% operating cash flow margin, and 130% net revenue retention, while acknowledging the longer-term risk of AI obsolescence.

“They ran a 43% operating cash flow margin in Q1. So in Q1 of this year, Figma generated $95 million of free cash flow. They've got net revenue retention of like 130%. So this land and expand is proven out and there's real durability.”▶ Listen · 1:15:49 ⚑

ChamathBullish📌 position call✗ wrong so far

Chamath sees Figma as a phenomenal business on current metrics but is cautious about years 3-5 given the unknown of how much foundational AI models will absorb into what they do, suggesting a long Figma / short Adobe spread as the safer trade.

“if I could get like $50 or $100 million of Figma, I would probably be long it and I would short an equivalent Quantum of Adobe, and I would just book the spread. And I think you make a ton of money that way.”▶ Listen · 1:16:29 ⚑

ChamathBearish📌 position call✓ right so far

Chamath argues Adobe will face a faster and steeper valuation re-rating than Figma in an AI-disrupted world, making it the better short leg in a Figma long / Adobe short spread trade.

“The person who's going to take a retrade on valuation faster than Figma will be Adobe. And so you'll be hedged and you'll probably make money that way.”▶ Listen · 1:16:51 ⚑