Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

FriedbergCommentarytracking against the call

Friedberg argues Apple faces deep regulatory risks — loss of Google's $20B TAC payment, China manufacturing/sales exposure, App Store fee scrutiny — because unlike Berkshire's other holdings it is not yet a regulated monopoly, making the transition to regulated status financially painful.

“Apple is facing very deep and severe financial impact from the regulatory authorities that are overseeing the business. So if you look at the Google antitrust, right, we're going to get into the Google deal in a sec. Yeah, there's a real re”▶ Listen · 49:39 ⚑

ChamathCommentarytracking against the call

Chamath argues Apple is 'a little bit wayward' as an unregulated monopoly/duopoly that doesn't know what to do with its position, and warns holders to sensitize valuation for the potential loss of Google's $20B annual TAC payment if the antitrust ruling stands — a hit worth up to half a trillion to a trillion dollars.

“Apple is sort of a little bit wayward. It is a company with an effective and unregulated monopoly or duopoly that doesn't really know what to do.”▶ Listen · 53:58 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues Google is clearly running at least two or three illegal monopolies (search, advertising, YouTube) and believes the company should be broken into three or four separate companies, representing a severe structural downside for the current entity.

“Google clearly is a monopoly. In fact, it's at least 2 or 3 monopolies. They have monopoly in search, they have monopoly in advertising, and they at least have a dominant position in video with YouTube. And I think that it would be great if”▶ Listen · 1:01:14 ⚑

ChamathCommentarytracking against the call

Chamath argues the Google antitrust ruling is the most important tech event since the 2000 Microsoft DOJ decision and expects a meaningful consent decree — much broader than the narrow TAC issue — that will hobble Google for years and open the door to AI-powered search competitors, representing a major negative for the company.

“I think that this Google thing is the most important thing that's happened in tech since the Microsoft DOJ decision in 2000... a consent decree where Google gets handcuffed for some number of years and it creates a couple of big waves of”▶ Listen · 58:26 ⚑