Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO

ChamathCommentary

Chamath argues NVIDIA and other AI names are at the tail end of the hype cycle, with every post-earnings spike being sold aggressively, and that the market doesn't believe the phantom ROI from AI capex will materialize anytime soon.

“people know that we are at the tail end of the hype cycle in AI, and every chance, every time these things spike, people take an opportunity to just massively sell. I mean, NVIDIA's turned over 308 million shares today.”▶ Listen · 42:15 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath argues Ackman's IPO failed because hedge fund GP equity is structurally un-investable — bets are short-term and unpredictable, making it nearly impossible to underwrite durable enterprise value, regardless of Ackman's personal track record.

“in finance, these entities that try to sell a piece of the quote-unquote general partner as a company, I just think that it's, um, frankly, that it doesn't work. And this is just, you know, an example, yet another example that there's not”▶ Listen · 1:12:24 ⚑