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E189Jul 26, 2024

Mag 7 sell-off, Wiz rejects Google, UBI, Kamala in, China's nuclear buildout, Sacks responds to PG

Takes
6
Companies
5
Playing out
2
Going against
1
Who weighed in
SacksFriedberg
4 bullish1 bearish1 neutral

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

FriedbergFriedbergCommentary

Friedberg argues that Wiz's growth momentum makes it conceivable they could reach a $100B market cap, making the decision to reject Google's $23B offer and pursue an IPO a reasonable risk with limited downside.

if Wizz continues to grow at this rate, it's conceivable they could be in the range of a Palo Alto Networks $100 billion market cap in a couple of years. Um, you know, given, uh, given this momentum and if you, if you progress it forward. S
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks argues that Wiz's ~100% growth rate and path to $1B ARR next year makes Google's $23B offer potentially reasonable, and that the founders were right to pursue standalone growth as a high-growth company that could justify a premium multiple.

if Wiz is growing at 100%, 100%, I mean, I don't know if it's still growing at 100%, but I mean, I guess they're projecting 50%.
PalantirPLTR+366.5% over 1yr 11mo
SacksSacksBullishtracking with the call

Sacks discloses he holds shares in Palantir and considers it a good investment.

I have shares in the company. I think it's a good investment.
GoogleGOOGL+124.7% over 1yr 11mo
FriedbergFriedbergCommentarytracking with the call

Friedberg highlights Google Cloud's accelerating profitability—$1.2B operating profit on $10.3B revenue—and argues it could generate $20–30B in annual free cash flow at scale, positioning it as a key strategic growth driver for Alphabet alongside AI.

they're running at a $1.2 billion operating profit out of GCP. So, you know, if you kind of think about what cloud margin should be over time and kind of call it 20 to 30% margin, this cloud business could be generating $20 to $30 billion a
CrowdStrikeCRWD+192.3% over 1yr 11mo
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks says he does not trust CrowdStrike due to its alleged deep-state connections and had his IT department verify they were not running its products, implying he would avoid the stock.

I can say this, that in the wake of this, Elon announced that he was removing CrowdStrike from any of his company's servers. Similarly, I had my IT department check and make sure that we didn't have it running anywhere. We don't. I'm just
Fox CorporationFOXA+44.3% over 1yr 11mo
SacksSacksCommentarytracking against the call

Sacks argues Fox already has a market position problem because it is misaligned with its audience under Rupert's neoconservative direction, which is bad for business, and the risk of the more liberal siblings taking over would be even worse for revenue and profit.

Fox already has a problem where they are becoming misaligned with their audience. And regardless of what you think of the politics, this is bad for business.