Market for US government-issued debt securities spanning short-term bills to long-term bonds.
2 takes · first discussed May 24, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Chamath warns that the bond market will re-underwrite US debt at real rates of 5–5.5% (not the CBO's 3.6%), triggering a decisive sell-off in US Treasuries; he says he will put his money on that outcome.
Friedberg argues the weak Treasury auction and rising 30-year yields above 5% — well above the CBO's 3.6% assumption — create a nonlinear, recursive debt spiral that could trigger a cataclysmic global credit unraveling if the Big Beautiful Bill passes as-is.
Both Friedberg and Chamath are aligned in viewing the US Treasury and bond market negatively, with high conviction, though Friedberg's stance is more explicitly bearish while Chamath frames his as neutral. Both argue that the bond market will reprice US debt at real rates of 5–5.5%, far above the CBO's 3.6% assumption, making current fiscal projections unrealistic. Friedberg goes further, warning that if the Big Beautiful Bill passes, the resulting deficit-to-interest-rate feedback loop could become nonlinear and uncontrollable, potentially triggering a catastrophic global credit event. Chamath echoes the repricing concern and expresses personal conviction that Treasuries will face a decisive sell-off, though he stops short of Friedberg's systemic collapse framing.
Chamath warns that the bond market will re-underwrite US debt at real rates of 5–5.5% (not the CBO's 3.6%), triggering a decisive sell-off in US Treasuries; he says he will put his money on that outcome.
I'll put my money where my mouth is and I'll put the chips on the table to say this is the moment... the bond markets will act decisively and they're going to go in one direction and it's away from us.”25:25
Friedberg argues the weak Treasury auction and rising 30-year yields above 5% — well above the CBO's 3.6% assumption — create a nonlinear, recursive debt spiral that could trigger a cataclysmic global credit unraveling if the Big Beautiful Bill passes as-is.
There is a nonlinear relationship between the deficit and interest rates, which drives up the debt problem in a nonlinear way, and it gets away from you and you can't fix it. And that's what the market is telling us.”7:29