The All-Index
E229May 24, 2025

Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO

Takes
9
Companies
4
Right so far
5
Wrong so far
0

Directional takes judged by each stock's move since this episode aired.

GoogleGOOGL+107.6% since this episode
ChamathChamathBullish✓ right so far

Chamath is bullish that Google will make AI Mode the default for a large swath of users within 18 months, but warns they must also stay ahead on new form factors or risk playing catch-up to OpenAI on the next platform.

I think what the market is betting is that it's going to happen in the next 18 months... when AI mode becomes the default for a large swath of existing Google users.
SacksSacksMixed

Sacks sees Google's AI Mode as an important but transitional step — it threads the needle between protecting legacy search revenue and building the AI product, calling it a good compromise while doubting it will be the final endpoint.

It ultimately feels a little bit like a transitional move. I doubt that this will be the endpoint, but given their need to protect their search business while also developing their AI business, this feels like a pretty good compromise.
FriedbergFriedbergBullish✓ right so far

Friedberg argues Google's I/O announcements represent a genuine inflection point — replacing search with AI Mode, launching a $250/month subscription bundle, and reviving Google Labs — marking the week Google pivoted to an AI business model with a meaningful revenue mix shift away from ads.

I would say if anyone were to identify the week that Google really pivoted into the AI business model, it might be this week. They launched over 15 products at this thing.
JasonJasonBullish✓ right so far

Jason sees Google's AI Mode launch as a potential turning point for the stock, noting the 5% jump and continued gains, suggesting the market is rewarding Google for finally moving toward an AI-first search product.

the stock ripped 5% on the day, which might be a turning point for Google.
FriedbergFriedbergBearish

Friedberg is skeptical of the IO acquisition, finding the promotional video substance-free and questioning whether Jony Ive's reputation justifies the deal, implying the acquisition may not add meaningful value to OpenAI.

I watched the 9-minute video. I wanted my 9 minutes back. Nothing happened.
ChamathChamathBullish

Chamath is genuinely excited about OpenAI's claimed next-gen device and views the IO acquisition as potentially creating a transformative new hardware platform, comparing his anticipation to the original iPhone moment, while noting the SoftBank round terms are surprisingly clean at a $300B valuation.

I want the device. They say they have a device. Okay, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. They've invented something that they say is world-changing.
SacksSacksBullish

Sacks frames the Jony Ive/IO acquisition as a high-conviction option bet: either it produces an iPhone-like breakthrough consumer device that doubles OpenAI's value, or it contributes nothing — making it a worthwhile asymmetric swing at the current scale.

I think it's going to be either zero or a doubling of the company's value... Either he develops an iPhone-like amazing hit product no one's seen before... or probably they do something that kind of doesn't work.
NVIDIANVDA+47.2% since this episode
SacksSacksBullish✓ right so far

Sacks argues that the US-Middle East AI partnership framework — requiring American hyperscalers to own 80% of regional data center compute and matching US infrastructure investment — ensures NVIDIA and American chip companies become the global standard, benefiting their balance of trade and market share.

even with respect to the data centers they're going to build in the region, at least 80% of the chips have to be owned and operated by American cloud service providers or American hyperscalers.
Constellation EnergyCEG-19.9% since this episode
ChamathChamathBearish✓ right so far

Chamath warns that cutting clean energy tax incentives in the Big Beautiful Bill will cause private capital to flee energy infrastructure investment, creating power shortages that are inflationary and harmful to AI buildout — a structural negative for energy providers dependent on those financing mechanisms.

If you want a nat gas turbine, we have to wait until 2030. Why? Because China owns them all... Nuclear? I can't because that'll take till 2035. So then I'm like, okay, I'll go into the tax equity markets and I'll finance myself residential