Legacy defense & aerospace (Boeing/Lockheed/Raytheon basket)

ITABearish

ETF tracking US aerospace and defense companies including major contractors and manufacturers.Yahoo Finance ↗

A sector/theme exposure, not a company — priced via the ITA ETF as a clean proxy. Excluded from the index and host funds.

1 take · first discussed Jan 4, 2025

Since their bearish call

-64.7%

since Jan 4, 2025· stance 530d old

since Jan 4, 2025 · 1yr 5mo

How the calls played out

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prices through Jun 18, 2026

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Where they stand now

Friedberg

Bearish

Friedberg picks legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon) as biggest business losers of 2025, arguing defense budgets will shift toward tech-oriented, ROI-driven providers like Palantir and Anduril, leaving cost-plus incumbents deeply challenged.

E209 · Jan 4, 20251 call ↓

The discussion

Friedberg holds a high-conviction bearish view on legacy defense and aerospace primes — Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon — naming them among his biggest business losers of 2025. His core argument is that defense budgets will rotate away from traditional cost-plus incumbents toward tech-driven, ROI-focused players such as Palantir and Anduril, leaving "Defense 1.0" providers deeply challenged. No other hosts offered a competing thesis on this basket, so the bear case here reflects Friedberg's view alone. The thesis is essentially a structural disruption argument: new priorities in government contracting, accelerated by an influx of reform-minded leadership, disadvantage established primes relative to newer, software-centric defense entrants.

How they got there

Friedberg1 mention since Jan 4, 2025

BearishE209Jan 4, 2025📌 scored call⚑

I went with the kind of old defense and aerospace providers, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Defense 1.0... I think this government contracting business across the board is going to be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood.”41:30

iAbout these quotes

Quotes are machine-transcribed from the episode audio — use the Listen links to verify any take against the source, or the ⚑ link to report a problem. Takes marked unverified, low-conviction, or commentary-only never move stances, the index, or the funds.