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Expedia

EXPECommentary

Online travel platform offering bookings for flights, hotels, vacation rentals, and activities.Yahoo Finance ↗expedia.com ↗

3 takes · first discussed Oct 18, 2024

Where they land
Commentary
Who's weighed in
SacksFriedbergChamath
Takes
3
First discussed
Oct 18, 2024

Commentary only — they've discussed this name but haven't made a call on it, so we don't attribute any call return to it. The stock's price chart and the takes are below.

How the stock has moved

The price since they started discussing it. Click a mention to see where it stood — these are comments, not calls.

prices through Jul 13, 2026
0%$297.18$149.233 comments near Oct 18, 2024+69.7%Oct 18, 2024Jul 10, 2026
click a chip for the quote + move since comment

Where they stand now

ChamathChamath
Commentary

Chamath argues Expedia's core business model — a UI layer on top of licensed third-party travel data — is structurally fragile in an AI agent world where tools like Perplexity can bypass it entirely, making a $30B acquisition a catastrophically bad capital allocation.

E200 · Oct 18, 20241 call ↓
SacksSacks
Commentary

Sacks is skeptical of the Uber/Expedia cross-sell thesis, arguing Uber users have no intent to book hotels through a ride-hailing app, making the synergy rationale MBA hand-waving rather than real product thinking.

E200 · Oct 18, 20241 call ↓
FriedbergFriedberg
Commentary

Friedberg sees a financial rationale for Uber acquiring Expedia at ~4x pro forma EBITDA via cost synergies and cross-sell, with VRBO as an underutilized asset, but acknowledges significant AI-driven strategic risk to the business model.

E200 · Oct 18, 20241 call ↓

The discussion

The hosts are broadly bearish on Expedia, particularly in the context of a potential Uber acquisition, though for somewhat different reasons. Chamath is the most negative, arguing that Expedia's business model — a UI layer over widely available third-party data — is structurally vulnerable to AI agents that can bypass it entirely, making a $30B price tag a major capital allocation mistake. Friedberg takes a more mixed view, acknowledging real AI-driven risk but seeing a financial case for acquisition at ~4x pro forma EBITDA through cost synergies and the underutilized VRBO asset. Sacks shares the bearish conclusion but focuses his skepticism on the cross-sell synergy thesis, contending that Uber's ride-hailing users have no intent to book hotels through the app, dismissing that rationale as superficial rather than grounded in real product thinking.

How they got there

ChamathChamath1 mention since Oct 18, 2024
NegativeE200Oct 18, 2024⚑

Chamath argues Expedia's core business model — a UI layer on top of licensed third-party travel data — is structurally fragile in an AI agent world where tools like Perplexity can bypass it entirely, making a $30B acquisition a catastrophically bad capital allocation.

I cannot think of a more fragile business model than the UI layer on top of widely available data... it would just be a very bad capital allocation decision. Now, that's okay to get things wrong, but not for $30 billion wrong... $30 billion”29:37
SacksSacks1 mention since Oct 18, 2024
NegativeE200Oct 18, 2024⚑

Sacks is skeptical of the Uber/Expedia cross-sell thesis, arguing Uber users have no intent to book hotels through a ride-hailing app, making the synergy rationale MBA hand-waving rather than real product thinking.

I don't think Uber customers want to be cross-sold on booking a hotel... when I use the Uber app, I just want to basically make a couple of clicks, set my destination, get my car, and then move on.”36:10
FriedbergFriedberg1 mention since Oct 18, 2024
MixedE200Oct 18, 2024⚑

Friedberg sees a financial rationale for Uber acquiring Expedia at ~4x pro forma EBITDA via cost synergies and cross-sell, with VRBO as an underutilized asset, but acknowledges significant AI-driven strategic risk to the business model.

You could see a scenario where you could increase Expedia's EBITDA by 75 to 100%, maybe getting it as high as $6 billion. And while Expedia's market cap trades at $20 billion... they're probably paying $26 billion for the company and they g”33:14
iAbout these quotes
Quotes are machine-transcribed from the episode audio — use the Listen links to verify any take against the source, or the ⚑ link to report a problem. Takes marked unverified, low-conviction, or commentary-only never move stances, the index, or the funds.