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Friedberg argues that at this stage of AI value creation, NVIDIA is the singular exception — the only company that has actually captured massive market cap ($3T) from the AI investment wave so far.
there's really only one company that's making any money, and that's NVIDIA. Like at this point, the jury's still out. We don't even know what AI is.” ⚑
Friedberg names Huawei as his top pick to challenge NVIDIA in 2026, predicting that undisclosed lithography technology already in China will be deployed in Huawei fabs, making them the most likely near-term NVIDIA challenger.
My early prediction for 2026 is Huawei, where I think that there is lithography technology that exists in in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland C” ⚑
Sacks views ASML's EUV monopoly as the West's single biggest advantage in the AI race, but acknowledges China's progress in reverse engineering and DUV workarounds is speeding up the timeline for closing the chip gap, making ASML's moat less durable than previously assumed.
EUV lithography, these machines that are made by ASML, is probably our single biggest advantage in the AI race... But if they figured out how to reverse EUV, that would be, I'd say, a blow because it is a real advantage for us.” ⚑