AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom's 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues OpenAI has actual subscription revenue, a dominant consumer position, and is replacing search — the internet's most lucrative franchise — making a $500B valuation justifiable.

“I mean, look, OpenAI has actual revenue. I mean, they have actual revenue because they have subscriptions and they appear to have the dominant position in the consumer space. And it is a replacement for a lot of people for search, which is”▶ Listen · 35:35 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath makes a bull case for OpenAI at a $500B valuation by extrapolating MAU/DAU growth and applying a fraction of Facebook/Google ARPU, arriving at a potential $1.5T valuation in 4 years.

“At 2 billion DAO, they generate a 10th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conservative. And you probably get to a trillion 5 valuation there.”▶ Listen · 35:23 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks is bullish on vertical AI applications and specialized/small language models as the real value-capture layer in AI, arguing they solve the 'last mile' problem that general LLMs fail at.

“I think this is a great thing ultimately for the ecosystem because it implies that you're going to get lots of vertical applications and lots of specialized models that capture value in lots of different markets.”▶ Listen · 35:35 ⚑