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E211Jan 18, 2025

Red-pilled Billionaires, LA Fire Update, Newsom's Price Caps, TikTok Ban, Jobless MBAs

Takes
3
Companies
3
Playing out
1
Going against
1
Who weighed in
2 bullish1 bearish

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

FriedbergFriedbergBullishtracking against the call

Friedberg picked Chinese tech stocks as one of his predictions, anticipating a US-China grand deal in the first 6 months of the Trump administration that would ease tariffs and benefit Chinese equities.

this was my stock prediction. Yeah, this was like my, I picked the Chinese tech stocks.
AlibabaBABA+31.6% over 1yr 5mo
GMark PincusBullishtracking with the call

Mark Pincus says he has been loading up on Alibaba and other Chinese names, betting on a US-China grand deal under Trump that would benefit Chinese tech stocks.

I've been loading up on Alibaba, a couple Chinese names.
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath argues that whoever acquires TikTok will get it at a steep discount to fair market value because the buyer has all the leverage, and the app itself should go away even if creators migrate to another platform like X.

whoever gets their hands on it gets their hands on an incredible asset. That they will be able to buy extremely cheaply because there is no way that there is a fair market value here deal for that asset because whoever is the buyer is in th