Skip to content
E199Oct 11, 2024

Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey

Takes
5
Companies
3
Playing out
1
Going against
0
Who weighed in
ChamathSacksFriedberg
1 bullish1 bearish3 neutral

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

GoogleGOOGL+119.2% over 1yr 9mo
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath predicts a forced structural remedy for Google is likely because technology innovation cycles have become too elongated, preventing creative destruction from naturally constraining these companies, making them obvious political targets.

Unfortunately, not what Friedberg just said. It'll be the opposite. There'll be some form of forced remedy... the technology innovation cycle has gotten too elongated. So you're not seeing creative destruction be the natural force that
SacksSacksCommentarytracking with the call

Sacks argues a Google breakup would likely be good for shareholders, as the company should probably be split into three separate entities, though he acknowledges the irony that this action comes precisely as Google faces its greatest existential threat from OpenAI.

But it is true that Google is facing the most existential threat to its search monopoly, and it is a monopoly, in the form of OpenAI at this point in time.
FriedbergFriedbergCommentary

Friedberg argues that breaking up Google would destroy the R&D benefits that large companies uniquely provide (DeepMind, Waymo), and that antitrust remedies should target specific monopolistic behaviors rather than company size itself.

I don't think that these big companies are bad just because they're big. I think we should take apart the monopolistic antitrust actions and behaviors that they take, and then identify ways to remedy those behaviors versus just saying
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath believes Florida coastal and California coastal real estate (specifically West Palm Beach and Malibu) are massively overpriced when climate risk, insurance costs, and long-term financial instability of insurers are properly accounted for.

My personal belief is I think that the, the real estate markets in some of these places are, um, meaningfully mispriced and Specifically what I mean is that they're massively overpriced.
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks notes he sold his Miami property last year, implying he timed the top of the market correctly given the subsequent hurricane and insurance risk concerns.

So it was a good thing that I sold my Miami place last year.