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E196Sep 20, 2024

Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

Takes
4
Companies
3
Playing out
0
Going against
1
Who weighed in
ChamathSacks
2 bullish1 bearish1 mixed

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks says VC is in a hangover from the 2020-2021 liquidity bubble that doubled entry prices and distorted returns, but sees light at the end of the tunnel with rate cuts and the AI wave potentially ushering in a new golden era for the industry.

I think we're just in the hangover of this massive liquidity bubble… the good news is that we now have maybe the most exciting tech wave ever, which is AI… So the hope is we're finally going to have really exciting things to invest in again
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath argues the VC industry is structurally broken due to extended company gestation periods, the 2021 bubble inflating entry prices, broken IPO and M&A exit paths, and AI companies requiring far less capital — predicting average returns will decay 50-100% and the industry must reinvent its liquidity mechanisms.

we are not in a sustainable industry. It is if you raise funds and think about fee generation, but it is not… I do think that we are in a situation where the average returns are going to decay by 50 to 100%
SpaceXSPCX-9.7% over 1yr 9mo
SacksSacksCommentarytracking against the call

Sacks argues Starlink has already solved the rural internet problem and is the best and cheapest solution available, but is being deliberately excluded by the Biden-Harris administration for political reasons, wasting taxpayer money and depriving rural Americans of connectivity.

we could spend a fraction of that giving people Starlink and allowing the private sector to do its job.
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks argues that LLMs plus voice AI will massively disrupt call centers within 2-3 years, replacing Level 1 customer support first and working up the chain, because the data sets are large and accessible, error tolerance is built into the tiered support structure, and reasoning models are now good enough.

I think it's now becoming really clear that call centers are going to be the first really big disruption caused by AI… I think within the next 2 to 3 years, you're going to see a massive disruption in that industry.