GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?

SacksCommentarytracking with the call

Sacks argues that Google's monopoly is so powerful it can absorb multiple AI missteps and ultimately win by copying Perplexity's citation-based search model, likely growing to a $5 trillion company as Gemini-powered OneBox becomes the future of Search.

“They can make 10 mistakes, but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator. And they're probably gonna become a $5 billion company now. Sorry, $5 trillion company.”▶ Listen · 1:34:36 ⚑

FriedbergCommentarytracking with the call

Friedberg argues Google's AI-powered OneBox/snippet approach will keep more users on-page, increase search volume, and allow Google to monetize queries it previously lost to third-party content — driving revenue per search query up, not down — while hidden assets like Isomorphic Labs represent upside that precision-focused analysts miss.

“I do think that the revenue per search query in some of those categories actually has the potential to go up, not down… Meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphics lab and Waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hu”

ChamathCommentarytracking with the call

Chamath reverses his prior bearish stance on Google, arguing that AI Overviews in Search plus hidden optionality like Isomorphic Labs (a potential multi-hundred-billion-dollar business) and Waymo make the company significantly underappreciated.

“I think the Google thing is pretty special between last week's announcement of Isomorphic Labs, which let's be honest, that's just a multi-hundred billion dollar company… the reports of their death were premature and exaggerated.”

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues GPT-4o's omnichannel speed and multimodal capabilities will unlock a wave of new B2B applications, and that metering model usage with best-in-class developer tools gives OpenAI a real business model beyond consumer subscriptions.

“If they're metering the usage of the models and providing the best dev tools, I think there is a business model there.”▶ Listen · 25:54 ⚑

ChamathCommentary

Chamath argues ChatGPT's consumer growth has plateaued and that the 'Facebook of AI' has yet to be built — the market is still in a primordial phase where basic capabilities are being standardized, with the real durable AI businesses still 2 years away.

“I will maintain my perspective here, which is the 'Facebook of AI' has yet to be created.”▶ Listen · 21:44 ⚑

ChamathBullish

Chamath says he used Glue at 8090 as an early adopter and, after the demo, commits alongside Jason to invest $1M at a 10x cap.

“J. Calvin and I will do the deal. We'll wire the money, a little million to each of you guys at a 10 cap.”▶ Listen · 1:00:48 ⚑

JasonBullish

Jason declares he is moving his company to Glue over the weekend and calls it a potential 100-bagger, framing it as a Slack killer built natively for the AI era.

“It feels like a 100-bagger to me. I'm in.”▶ Listen · 30:00 ⚑

JasonBullish

Jason commits alongside Chamath to invest $1M at a 10x cap in Ohalo after Friedberg's breakthrough demo.

“Yes, we will break our way into this.”▶ Listen · 1:00:46 ⚑

FriedbergCommentary

Friedberg reveals Ohalo's 'Boosted Breeding' breakthrough — a protein-based method that doubles a plant's chromosome set, yielding 50–100%+ gains in crop yield — arguing it creates durable moats through compounding variety improvement and could transform global food security.

“the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100% or more. Just to give you a sense, like, In the corn seed industry, breeders that are breeding corn are spending $3 billion a year on breeding, and they're getting maybe 1.5% yield gai”▶ Listen · 43:28 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks argues Perplexity is likely screwed now that Google has copied its citation-based AI search model, leaving an acquisition as its best remaining outcome.

“Sucks for Perplexity. I think they're kind of screwed now unless they get an acquisition deal.”▶ Listen · 1:32:44 ⚑

SacksCommentary

Sacks endorses Druckenmiller's macro thesis on Argentina — Milei's rapid fiscal austerity from large deficit to surplus is textbook and will ultimately attract investment and reduce inflation, making Argentine ADRs a sound macro bet.

“He comes in and they've got a huge budget deficit and they've got runaway inflation... just practically overnight, he just slashes government spending to the point where he has a government surplus. And then as soon as he gets credibility”▶ Listen · 1:04:52 ⚑

JasonBullish

Jason discloses his largest-ever investment in Athena, a virtual EA/operations service growing faster than Uber or Robinhood at comparable stages, which he describes as already transforming his own fund's productivity at a fraction of prior cost.

“we put a 7-figure bet in, which is rare for us as a seed fund.”▶ Listen · 1:14:34 ⚑

SacksBullish

Sacks reveals he is participating in the seed round of an unnamed startup creating a rights marketplace for content owners to license AI training rights, which he sees as the inevitable infrastructure for resolving AI fair-use disputes.

“I'm going to be participating in the seed round.”▶ Listen · 1:31:33 ⚑