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E178May 10, 2024

In conversation with Sam Altman

Takes
4
Companies
3
Playing out
0
Going against
2
Who weighed in
ChamathSacksFriedberg
1 bullish2 bearish1 neutral

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

AppleAAPL+72.3% over 2yr 2mo
ChamathChamathCommentarytracking against the call

Chamath argues Apple has too much cash with no ideas, lacks the M&A muscle to deploy it, and missed category-defining opportunities like the car — pointing to Buffett quietly selling $20B of shares as a telling signal.

It's an incredible business that has so much money with nothing to do. They're probably just going to buy back the stock. Just a total waste.
SacksSacksCommentarytracking against the call

Sacks argues Apple has run out of in-house innovation — exemplified by the iPad merely getting thinner — and with an inability to execute meaningful M&A, its growth options are structurally limited.

Well, if you're running out of in-house innovation and you can't do M&A, then your options are kind of limited. I mean, I do think that the fact that the big news out of Apple is the iPad's getting thinner does represent kind of the end of
ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath believes OpenAI will be one of four dominant AI companies, and that the real economic value will accrue from proprietary scaffolding and infrastructure built around commoditizing models — analogous to paid cloud infrastructure running open-source software.

I think that these guys are going to be one of the four major companies that matter in this whole space. I think that that's clear.
GoogleGOOGL+111.8% over 2yr 2mo
FriedbergFriedbergCommentary

Friedberg argues that AlphaFold 3 and Isomorphic Labs represent an extraordinary, underappreciated portfolio of high-value bets at Google that could unlock a $100B+ drug discovery business, and that Google's decision to keep AlphaFold 3 proprietary signals serious commercial intent.

I think the other side of this is Google is hugely advantaged and they just showed the world a little bit about some of these jewels that they have in the treasure chest.