U.S. government-issued 10-year Treasury bonds serving as a benchmark for interest rates and fixed income.
2 takes · first discussed Mar 1, 2025
Private company — no public price to score. We track what they said; valuation-mark tracking is on the roadmap.
Chamath views the bond market's compression in the 10-year yield as meaningful and positive, suggesting rates could fall further under 4% if fiscal data cooperates, which benefits the US refinancing effort.
Friedberg notes the 10-year yield has dropped half a point in the last month, reading it as a signal that markets do not expect rampant inflation from current policy — generally a bullish sign for bonds.
Both Chamath and Friedberg hold bullish stances on the 10-year US Treasury, though Chamath with medium conviction and Friedberg with low conviction. They agree that the recent decline in the 10-year yield — from a peak near 5% to around 4.26% — is a positive signal, with Friedberg interpreting it as markets not pricing in rampant inflation and Chamath viewing it as the bond market giving credit to fiscal consolidation efforts like DOGE. Chamath goes further than Friedberg, suggesting yields could fall below 4% if favorable fiscal data continues, which he sees as beneficial for US debt refinancing. Neither host expresses a bearish view, and their disagreement is largely one of degree rather than direction.
Chamath views the bond market's compression in the 10-year yield as meaningful and positive, suggesting rates could fall further under 4% if fiscal data cooperates, which benefits the US refinancing effort.
the bond market has basically said, okay, we are going to give you credit that Doge is going to work... you could see this thing maybe even get under 4% if we get a good string of data.”32:43
Friedberg notes the 10-year yield has dropped half a point in the last month, reading it as a signal that markets do not expect rampant inflation from current policy — generally a bullish sign for bonds.
the 10-year was— it peaked at 5% two weeks before the election... Now it's down to 4.26% today... it's actually a reasonable, like, sign that we don't think there's going to be rampant inflation over the next decade.”41:00