Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

ChamathBearish✗ wrong so far

Chamath argues Apple's iOS 18 quality failures — bricking, broken Photos app, degraded core phone functionality — reflect a structural engineering and product management problem that makes the iPhone 10–30% less usable, signaling deeper organizational issues.

“It's literally not just photos. It's like the phone doesn't work. So there are just core structural issues with this operating system now that makes the iPhone maybe 10 to 30% less usable.”▶ Listen · 50:41 ⚑

Keith Rabois is long-term bullish on Apple's vertical integration moat (hardware + software + custom chips giving a 5–10 year competitive edge) but warns of a cultural decay function post-Jobs/Ive — Apple has lost its taste scaffolding and lacks the data-driven backstop other companies use, leaving it vulnerable on the AI/UX battleground of the next 5 years.

“Apple has a lot of competitive advantages... but they're showing like the decay function... eventually somebody will figure out an angle to rip them out.”▶ Listen · 47:57 ⚑

ChamathBullish✓ right so far

Chamath argues that Google's search cash flows have funded extraordinary long-term R&D (quantum computing via Willow, Waymo, DeepMind), demonstrating the compounding value of its core business in ways outsiders — including regulators — fail to appreciate.

“Google had the money to fund him for the last 12 years... the business they built was able to fund this... it's really awesome.”▶ Listen · 35:11 ⚑

Keith Rabois believes Stripe should go public as early as possible to gain public currency for M&A and strategic optionality, arguing that staying private forces the company to expend energy constructing alternatives to public-market advantages rather than focusing on higher-value creation.

“Stripe should go public, but they don't listen to me... I personally believe and subscribe to the view that companies should go public as early as possible.”▶ Listen · 1:06:31 ⚑

Keith Rabois cites Shopify as proof of a fully competitive D2C commerce market, noting it rose from a low valuation to dominate direct-to-consumer commerce against Amazon — evidence that antitrust fears about Amazon's alleged monopoly were overblown.

“Shopify is one of the biggest success stories of the last decade, right down the middle, competitive with Amazon... Nobody builds a D2C commerce brand except on Shopify.”▶ Listen · 1:13:01 ⚑