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E183Jun 14, 2024

Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser

Takes
6
Companies
3
Playing out
3
Going against
0
Who weighed in
ChamathJasonSacks
3 bullish1 bearish2 mixed

A call is only graded once it's had time to play out and the stock has moved beyond its normal range — long-term views get a full quarter before we'll say they're tracking against.

ChamathChamathCommentary

Chamath argues OpenAI may be the 'AOL' of the AI era — dominant today but ultimately displaced by open-source models like Llama that deliver 85-90% of the capability at far lower cost, especially as enterprises figure out how to build their own LLM-driven tools.

Maybe OpenAI is AOL, right? Like, I think that there's going to be a Google that'll show up that'll— maybe it's Google. Grab a large part of the value here, or, you know, ultimately the cost comes down so much with the open source tools.
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks is impressed by OpenAI's product quality and revenue growth but sees risk in consumer B2C churn; he believes long-term value lies in the B2B/API developer business, and questions whether OpenAI can maintain its leadership as other LLMs catch up.

if I was to try and take apart this business as an investor, I would separate the B2C business from the B2B business… as somebody who invests in SaaS, when we see a business that has B2C subscriptions and B2B, we place all the value on B2B.
AppleAAPL+50.8% over 2yr
SacksSacksCommentary

Sacks acknowledges the market liked Apple's AI announcement and that Apple did exactly what he recommended — reinventing Siri as an LLM agent — but raises serious concerns about the privacy and competitive implications of opening the OS to OpenAI, which could undermine Apple's walled-garden advantage.

Apple did exactly what I said they should do last week, which was to reinvent Siri as an LLM with the ability, with the capability to reach into apps as an agent and take actions on the user's behalf. That's what they effectively announced.
JasonJasonCommentarytracking with the call

Jason argues Apple's AI announcement, especially the AI-powered Siri with app-layer agent capabilities and the ChatGPT integration, positions Apple to win the AI consumer market and drive a new device upgrade cycle.

I think this means that Apple is going to win the AI consumer. There is a deal with ChatGPT that I'll get your feedback on, gentlemen, in a moment.
TeslaTSLA+129.1% over 2yr
ChamathChamathCommentarytracking with the call

Chamath argues that investors who voted against Elon's pay package had the calculus wrong — by ensuring Elon stays, the stock rose more than 10%, more than offsetting the dilution from the pay package.

By him getting the pay package, the certainty of him sticking around at the company cause the stock to go up by 10%. So they actually had the calculus wrong, that if they had gotten their way, the stock would have declined by more than the
SacksSacksCommentarytracking with the call

Sacks argues that Tesla shareholders were right to reapprove Elon's pay package because Elon delivered on his promises and is still vital to the company's future innovation, as evidenced by the stock ripping on the news.

I still think he's absolutely vital to all the innovation that's going to come in the future from Tesla. And you see this, the stock is ripping on the news, is up about 3% today in a down market. So clearly the market thinks that securing E